The rise in diploma earning came from declining dropout rates, which fell from 35 to 11 percent, not from declines in other outcomes¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r3 · q2
Currency · newest study 2016 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? The percentage of students recorded as dropouts by age 19 fell from 35 to 11 percent, and the rise in diploma earning resulted from this dropout decline rather than a decline in other outcomes. → Allensworth 2016

Evidence¶

Allensworth 2016¶

Allensworth, E.M., Healey, K., Gwynne, J.A., & Crespin, R. (2016). High school graduation rates through two decades of district change: The influence of policies, data records, and demographic shifts. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://www.cps.edu/SchoolData/Pages/SchoolData.aspx

q2 · i? · associational · r3

Analysis of student outcomes at age 19 across cohorts (Figure 3, Table 1). The share earning a regular diploma rose from 43 percent (1998 cohort) to 62 percent (2014 cohort); dropout counts fell from over 10,000 to just over 3,000 students.

"The percentage of students in each cohort recorded as dropping out of high school by age 19 has declined dramatically over the last 15 years, falling from 35 to 11 percent of students."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• CPS graduation rates increased by 22.4 percentage points over 16 years, from 52.4 percent among students who turned 19 in 1998 to 74.8 percent in 2014 — related
• Gains in sophomore performance were unequal: about one in five Latino and Black young men were off-track at the end of sophomore year — related
• On-track improvements were accompanied by across-the-board grade gains, not grade inflation from turning Fs into Ds — related
• Chicago high school graduation rates improved dramatically over 20 years without a decline in average high school academic performance — related
• High school stability improvements in CPS were largely driven by declining dropout rates, which fell from 7.1 percent to 3.2 percent during the school year between 1995 and 2006 — related
• Chicago Public Schools dropout rates remained high, with over 40 percent of students dropping out by age 19 — related
• Chicago's on-track data system was associated with improved high school graduation rates — related
• Chicago graduation rates improved steadily since the early 1990s except for the first two cohorts subject to the eighth-grade promotion standard, and age-16 dropout rates declined for the last five years — related
• Dropout intentions increased over the school year among 9th-grade students — related