The five-year dropout rate for the first cohort fully subject to the CPS promotion policy (1995) continued the slight downward trend, but pre-age-18 patterns do not clearly indicate a change¶
Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associationalr2·q2
Currency · newest study 2001 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person
Subclaims¶
Reading the evidence codes
q is the design tier, i the impact, n the sample, and the kind with its r
the rigour judged within that kind: what each code means.
This claim: no standardized effect is recorded in observations/ for it yet, so no benchmark reading is possible.
q2 i? The five-year dropout rate for the 1995 cohort was 37.5 percent, slightly below the 37.9 percent of the 1994 cohort. → Elaine Allensworth and John Q. Easton 2001
Evidence¶
Elaine Allensworth and John Q. Easton 2001¶
Elaine Allensworth and John Q. Easton. (2001). Calculating a Cohort Dropout Rate for the Chicago Public Schools: A Technical Research Report. Consortium on Chicago School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/calculating-cohort-dropout-rate-chicago-public-schools
q2 · i? · associational · r2
Cohort comparison across the 1991–1995 cohorts using the age-13-defined cohort method. The report prints the five-year rates for each cohort; no significance test or effect size is reported.
"The five-year dropout rate for the 1995 cohort is 37.5 percent, compared to 37.9 percent for the 1994 cohort, 38.6 percent for 1993, 38.9 percent for 1992, and 39.4 percent for 1991."
Discussion¶
Related Claims¶
- Over 40 percent of Chicago Public Schools students drop out by age 19, with a slight downward trend across the 1991–1994 cohorts — related
- Graduation by age 18 was slightly higher in later cohorts despite earlier off-schedule status — related
- Including unverified transfers as dropouts yields dropout rates about 4 percent higher at age 19 and eliminates the downward trend — related
- Defining dropout cohorts by age 13 rather than by ninth-grade entry avoids composition bias from the CPS promotion policy's grade retentions — related
- Chicago graduation rates improved steadily since the early 1990s except for the first two cohorts subject to the eighth-grade promotion standard, and age-16 dropout rates declined for the last five years — related
- Chicago Public Schools dropout rates remained high, with over 40 percent of students dropping out by age 19 — related
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
promotion-policy-cohort-five-year-rate-continued-trend |
title |
The five-year dropout rate for the first cohort fully subject to the CPS promotion policy (1995) continued the slight downward trend, but pre-age-18 patterns do not clearly indicate a change |
description |
The five-year dropout rate for the first cohort fully subject to the CPS promotion policy (1995) continued the slight downward trend, but pre-age-18 patterns do not clearly indicate a change |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
weak |
newest_evidence |
2001 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-08 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
1 — elaine-allensworth-and-john-q-easton-2001 |
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