Being male, Black, or Hispanic and changing schools predict lower odds of moving on-track; the reading findings are qualitatively similar¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · associational r2–r3 · q2
Currency · newest study 2020 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? For students initially off-track, being male, Black, Hispanic, and changing schools were associated with significantly lower odds of moving on-track, while being Asian and higher initial achievement predicted higher odds. → Angela Johnson 2020 q2 i? Reading status-change estimates differ slightly in magnitude but are qualitatively similar to the math results. → Angela Johnson 2020 (2)

Evidence¶

Angela Johnson 2020¶

Angela Johnson, Megan Kuhfeld, and Greg King. (2020). Catching up or Falling Behind: Measuring Middle School Achievement Trajectories for College Readiness. EdWorkingPaper No. 20-233, Annenberg Institute at Brown University. https://www.nwea.org/research/publication/catching-up-or-falling-behind-measuring-middle-school-achievement-trajectories-for-college-readiness/

q2 · i? · associational · r3

HGLM results for the initially off-track subsample (Table 2, Panel B), students nested within schools. The quote states estimates are "the opposite direction as those presented in Panel A" for the demographic predictors.

"Panel B shows the odds ratios for students who were off-track in the fall of 6th grade to move on-track. Estimates are the opposite direction as those presented in Panel A. Being male, Black, Hispanic, and changing schools between grades were associated with significantly lower odds of moving on-track."

Angela Johnson 2020 (2)¶

Angela Johnson, Megan Kuhfeld, and Greg King. (2020). Catching up or Falling Behind: Measuring Middle School Achievement Trajectories for College Readiness. EdWorkingPaper No. 20-233, Annenberg Institute at Brown University. https://www.nwea.org/research/publication/catching-up-or-falling-behind-measuring-middle-school-achievement-trajectories-for-college-readiness/

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Reading status-change models (Table 2, Panels C and D) in the same hierarchical generalized linear modeling framework. The quote notes the estimates are "slightly different in magnitude compared to the math results" but qualitatively similar.

"Panels C and D show the findings for changing status in reading. The estimates are slightly different in magnitude compared to the math results, but the findings are qualitatively similar."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Higher proportions of Black and Hispanic students than White and Asian students are off-track for college readiness throughout middle school — related
• Large-scale longitudinal study measures middle school academic trajectories relative to college readiness benchmarks for more than 360,000 US students — a broader claim this one bears on
• Student-level and school-level demographic characteristics significantly predict middle school academic trajectories toward college readiness — a broader claim this one bears on
• Among students initially on-track, being male, Black, or Hispanic and attending higher-FRPL schools predict higher odds of falling off track in math — related
• Among students starting 6th grade on track, being male, Black, Hispanic, or attending a higher low-income school is associated with falling off track — related
• Background characteristics independently predict 9th-grade off-track indicators: boys are 1.7 times as likely to be suspended and 3.5 times as likely to have a GPA below a C than girls — related