Among students initially on-track, being male, Black, or Hispanic and attending higher-FRPL schools predict higher odds of falling off track in math¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2020 · checked against its sources 2026-10-20 (automated, 1 of 1 entry) · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Hierarchical generalized linear models on the 28% initially on-track subsample show odds ratios of 1.381 for male, 1.398 for Black, and 1.171 for Hispanic students for falling off track in math by spring of 8th grade. → Angela Johnson 2020

Evidence¶

Angela Johnson 2020¶

Angela Johnson, Megan Kuhfeld, and Greg King. (2020). Catching up or Falling Behind: Measuring Middle School Achievement Trajectories for College Readiness. EdWorkingPaper No. 20-233, Annenberg Institute at Brown University. https://www.nwea.org/research/publication/catching-up-or-falling-behind-measuring-middle-school-achievement-trajectories-for-college-readiness/

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Hierarchical generalized linear models predicting status change among students on-track in fall of 6th grade, with students nested within schools (Table 2, Panel A). The quote prints odds ratios of 1.381, 1.398, 1.171, and 1.139 for the demographic predictors.

"Being male, Black, Hispanic, or a member of another race/ethnicity group is associated with significantly higher odds of falling off track in math (odds ratios of 1.381, 1.398, 1.171, and 1.139, respectively). Changing schools between grades is also associated with higher odds of falling off track (odds ratios of 1.352 and 1.665)."

Discussion¶

Learner Variables¶

• Gender — predictor: outcomes differ by group: a gap reflecting circumstances and treatment, not a cause

Related Claims¶

• Higher proportions of Black and Hispanic students than White and Asian students are off-track for college readiness throughout middle school — related
• Student-level and school-level demographic characteristics significantly predict middle school academic trajectories toward college readiness — a broader claim this one bears on
• Among students starting 6th grade on track, being male, Black, Hispanic, or attending a higher low-income school is associated with falling off track — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
• Being male, Black, or Hispanic and changing schools predict lower odds of moving on-track; the reading findings are qualitatively similar — related
• Always on-track and always off-track students attend schools with systematically different demographic compositions — related
• Background characteristics independently predict 9th-grade off-track indicators: boys are 1.7 times as likely to be suspended and 3.5 times as likely to have a GPA below a C than girls — related
• Gains in sophomore performance were unequal: about one in five Latino and Black young men were off-track at the end of sophomore year — related
• Middle school on-track status for college readiness is stable for most students across grades 6 to 8 — related
• Learning conditions predict math grades across racial and socioeconomic groups, with larger associations for FRPL-eligible and Black students — related