Good fit of the ESDM indicates the PALMA data could have been generated without any prospective effects between achievement and self-concept¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2025 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? The extended skill development model, which assumes no direct prospective effects between occasion-specific scores, fit the simulated PALMA-like data well, suggesting Marsh et al.'s presented effects may have been spurious. → Kimmo Sorjonen 2025

Evidence¶

Kimmo Sorjonen 2025¶

Kimmo Sorjonen, Bo Melin, Gustav Nilsonne. (2025). Inconclusive Evidence for a Prospective Effect of Academic Self-Concept on Achievement: A Simulated Reanalysis and Comment on Marsh et al. (2024). Educational Psychology Review. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10648-025-10008-4

q2 · i? · associational · r2

SEM fit of the ESDM on simulated PALMA-like data. The article reports "a good fit" (χ2 = 597, DF = 45, CFI = 0.977, RMSEA = 0.059), indicating the data "could have been generated by a model without any prospective effects" and that the presented effects may have been spurious.

"The ESDM (Fig. 1C) had a good fit (χ2 = 597, DF = 45, CFI = 0.977, TLI = 0.977, RMSEA = 0.059). This indicates that the data analyzed by Marsh et al. (2024) could have been generated by a model without any prospective effects between achievement and self-concept"

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Additional modified models suggest a positive effect of change in achievement on contemporaneous change in self-concept — related
• Validation with simulated TRAIN-like data replicates the divergence: RI-CLPM positive, LCSM negative, ESDM no-direct-effects — related
• Reanalyses of simulated and PALMA data provide converging support for the extended reciprocal effects model, including an effect of academic self-concept on achievement — reports the opposite
• The RI-CCLPM-C indicates a positive self-concept effect on achievement even when data are generated without any direct effects between self-concept and achievement — related
• Time-reversed analysis of simulated data suggests a decreasing rather than increasing effect of self-concept on achievement, yielding inconsistent conclusions from the same data — related
• RI-CLPM on simulated PALMA-like data shows positive reciprocal cross-lagged effects between within-individual math achievement and self-concept — reports the opposite
• Simulated time-on-task achievement correlations resemble empirical distributions from K-12 classroom studies without any fitting procedure — related
• Correcting the wave-1 change-score misspecification in Sorjonen et al.'s LCSM yields a proper solution with positive effects between academic self-concept and achievement — reports the opposite
• A latent change score model of correlated initial levels and change scores of self-concepts and comparison-related beliefs fits the data well — related