The RI-CCLPM-C indicates a positive self-concept effect on achievement even when data are generated without any direct effects between self-concept and achievement¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · theoretical r3 · q2
Currency · newest study 2025 · checked against its sources 2026-10-20 (automated, 1 of 1 entry) · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? In simulated data (SIM-NEW, N = 3527) generated with no direct effects between achievement and self-concept, the RI-CCLPM-C still yielded a statistically significant positive focal effect (β = 0.145), showing such effects can arise under non-causal data-generating processes. → Kimmo Sorjonen 2025

Evidence¶

Kimmo Sorjonen 2025¶

Kimmo Sorjonen, Bo Melin, Gustav Nilsonne. (2025). Still No Convincing Evidence for a Causal Effect of Academic Self-Concept on Achievement: A Reply to Núñez-Regueiro et al., 2025. Educational Psychology Review. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10648-025-10083-7

q2 · i? · theoretical · r3

Simulation study using R (lavaan, MASS packages). SIM-NEW data (N = 3527, matching Marsh et al.'s sample) was generated with trait-like levels, autocorrelated state factors, and ability effects, but "no direct effects on each other". The RI-CCLPM-C focal effect was β = 0.145 [0.121; 0.168], p < 0.001, CFI = 0.997, RMSEA = 0.018.

"The positive focal effect and good model fit (see Table 1) when fitting the RI-CCLPM-C to data generated as in Fig. 2 (SIM-NEW) shows that findings similar to those reported by Marsh et al. may be observed even if data has been generated without any direct effects between scores on self-concept and achievement."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Time-reversed analysis of simulated data suggests a decreasing rather than increasing effect of self-concept on achievement, yielding inconsistent conclusions from the same data — related
• The extended REM was robust to several alternative modeling specifications proposed by Sorjonen et al. — related
• Reanalyses of simulated and PALMA data provide converging support for the extended reciprocal effects model, including an effect of academic self-concept on achievement — reports the opposite
• Across basic and extended RI-CLPMs and CLPMs of five-wave secondary-school data, math self-concept and achievement show consistent reciprocal (bidirectional) directional ordering — related
• Simulation evidence shows RI-CLPM estimates are biased when the true model is a CLPM with lag-2 effects, and fit statistics cannot decide between the two — related
• Temporal direction between PNT and LOU could not be identified: the reversed specification was observationally equivalent — related
• RI-CLPMs control unmeasured time-invariant covariates better than CLPMs, but neither controls unmeasured time-varying covariates well — related
• With young primary-school readers, REM support appeared in CLPMs but not RI-CLPMs, motivating tests with older students — related
• Good fit of the ESDM indicates the PALMA data could have been generated without any prospective effects between achievement and self-concept — related
• RI-CLPM on simulated PALMA-like data shows positive reciprocal cross-lagged effects between within-individual math achievement and self-concept — reports the opposite
• Validation with simulated TRAIN-like data replicates the divergence: RI-CLPM positive, LCSM negative, ESDM no-direct-effects — related
• Simulated correlations between time-on-task and achievement vary substantially across contexts and can be negative even when time-on-task causally increases achievement — related
• Simulated time-on-task achievement correlations resemble empirical distributions from K-12 classroom studies without any fitting procedure — related
• Reciprocal effects are robust to time-invariant confounders, but the French lagged self-concept effect did not survive the lag2 carryover stress test — related
• The choice of longitudinal statistical model can determine whether reciprocal motivation-achievement relations are found — related
• Correcting the wave-1 change-score misspecification in Sorjonen et al.'s LCSM yields a proper solution with positive effects between academic self-concept and achievement — related
• The SIM-NEW simulation's assumptions (fully simulated data, a single latent ability factor, and a non-REM time-reversed analysis) limit its relevance to the reciprocal effects debate — related
• Sorjonen et al.'s (2023) simulation lacked a temporal structure and therefore cannot justify replacing autoregressive effects with covariances in the LCSM — related
• A latent change score model of correlated initial levels and change scores of self-concepts and comparison-related beliefs fits the data well — related