Validation with simulated TRAIN-like data replicates the divergence: RI-CLPM positive, LCSM negative, ESDM no-direct-effects¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2025 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? On data simulated to resemble the TRAIN study data, the RI-CLPM suggested positive prospective effects, the LCSM negative effects, and the ESDM suggested data may have been generated without direct effects. → Kimmo Sorjonen 2025

Evidence¶

Kimmo Sorjonen 2025¶

Kimmo Sorjonen, Bo Melin, Gustav Nilsonne. (2025). Inconclusive Evidence for a Prospective Effect of Academic Self-Concept on Achievement: A Simulated Reanalysis and Comment on Marsh et al. (2024). Educational Psychology Review. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10648-025-10008-4

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Reanalysis of simulated data matching the TRAIN study (N = 3757, four annual waves, grades 5–8). RI-CLPM effects b = 0.114 and b = 0.135 (p < 0.001); LCSM effects b = −0.106 and b = −0.128 (p < 0.001); ESDM fit χ2 = 821, CFI = 0.934; modified LCSM b = 0.130, p < 0.001.

"The RI-CLPM suggested an increasing prospective effect of achievement on subsequent self-concept (b = 0.114 [0.085; 0.142], p < 0.001) and vice versa (b = 0.135 [0.109; 0.160], p < 0.001) (Fig. 3A). The LCSM, on the other hand, suggested decreasing prospective effects"

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Good fit of the ESDM indicates the PALMA data could have been generated without any prospective effects between achievement and self-concept — related
• LCSM on the same simulated PALMA-like data shows negative cross-lagged effects, contradicting the reciprocal effects model — related
• RI-CLPM on simulated PALMA-like data shows positive reciprocal cross-lagged effects between within-individual math achievement and self-concept — related
• The RI-CCLPM-C indicates a positive self-concept effect on achievement even when data are generated without any direct effects between self-concept and achievement — related
• Time-reversed analysis of simulated data suggests a decreasing rather than increasing effect of self-concept on achievement, yielding inconsistent conclusions from the same data — related
• Reanalyses of simulated and PALMA data provide converging support for the extended reciprocal effects model, including an effect of academic self-concept on achievement — reports the opposite
• Simulated time-on-task achievement correlations resemble empirical distributions from K-12 classroom studies without any fitting procedure — related
• Correcting the wave-1 change-score misspecification in Sorjonen et al.'s LCSM yields a proper solution with positive effects between academic self-concept and achievement — related
• Sorjonen et al.'s (2023) simulation lacked a temporal structure and therefore cannot justify replacing autoregressive effects with covariances in the LCSM — related