Time-reversed analysis of simulated data suggests a decreasing rather than increasing effect of self-concept on achievement, yielding inconsistent conclusions from the same data¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · theoretical r3 · q2
Currency · newest study 2025 · checked against its sources 2026-10-20 (automated, 1 of 1 entry) · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? In SIM-ORG data simulated to resemble the data used by Marsh et al., the reversed model yielded a positive focal effect (β = 0.418), which the authors interpret as indicating a paradoxical decreasing effect of within-individual self-concept on achievement, contradicting the REM's predicted increasing effect. → Kimmo Sorjonen 2025

Evidence¶

Kimmo Sorjonen 2025¶

Kimmo Sorjonen, Bo Melin, Gustav Nilsonne. (2025). Still No Convincing Evidence for a Causal Effect of Academic Self-Concept on Achievement: A Reply to Núñez-Regueiro et al., 2025. Educational Psychology Review. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10648-025-10083-7

q2 · i? · theoretical · r3

Simulation analysis fitting both the RI-CCLPM-C and a time-reversed model to SIM-ORG data. In SIM-ORG the RI-CCLPM-C gave β = 0.155 [0.127; 0.184] while the reversed model gave β = 0.418 [0.398; 0.437], both p < 0.001; model fit was good for all four data-model combinations (CFI > 0.96, RMSEA < 0.08).

"However, the focal effect was positive also in the reversed model, suggesting a paradoxical decreasing effect of within-individual self-concept on within-individual achievement."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• The RI-CCLPM-C indicates a positive self-concept effect on achievement even when data are generated without any direct effects between self-concept and achievement — related
• The extended REM was robust to several alternative modeling specifications proposed by Sorjonen et al. — related
• Reanalyses of simulated and PALMA data provide converging support for the extended reciprocal effects model, including an effect of academic self-concept on achievement — reports the opposite
• The alternative models proposed by Sorjonen et al. relied on specifications that raised model-validity concerns or did not fully capture the extended REM's temporal structure — related
• Temporal direction between PNT and LOU could not be identified: the reversed specification was observationally equivalent — related
• With young primary-school readers, REM support appeared in CLPMs but not RI-CLPMs, motivating tests with older students — related
• Good fit of the ESDM indicates the PALMA data could have been generated without any prospective effects between achievement and self-concept — related
• Validation with simulated TRAIN-like data replicates the divergence: RI-CLPM positive, LCSM negative, ESDM no-direct-effects — related
• Simulated time-on-task achievement correlations resemble empirical distributions from K-12 classroom studies without any fitting procedure — related
• The SIM-NEW simulation's assumptions (fully simulated data, a single latent ability factor, and a non-REM time-reversed analysis) limit its relevance to the reciprocal effects debate — related