GPA combined with test scores was the best prediction of college degree attainment for all English Learner groups, but the test-score relationship partly reflects school composition¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2025 · checked against its sources 2026-10-20 (automated, 2 of 2 entries) · not reviewed by a person
Evidence quality · No study behind this claim is a peer-reviewed article with a DOI: it rests on a source with no registered publication record (a web page, book or unpublished report). It is kept because 2 design pages cite it; treat it as a lead to check, not an established finding.

Subclaims¶

q2 i? For all English Learner groups, the combination of GPA with test scores best predicted which students eventually attained a college degree. → Allensworth 2025 q2 i? The strength of the test-score relationship with college outcomes weakens when comparing students with different test scores within the same high school. → Allensworth 2025 (2)

Evidence¶

Allensworth 2025¶

Allensworth, E.M., de la Torre, M., Franklin, K., & Xu, J. (2025). Identifying Indicators to Support Educational Attainment for Different Groups of English Learners in High School. (Working Paper). Providence, RI: Annenberg EdExchange. https://edworkingpapers.com/ai25-1241

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Logistic regression models predicting degree completion for each English Learner subgroup, comparing McFadden pseudo-R2 across indicator models, found "The combination of GPA with test scores was the best prediction" of eventual college degree attainment for every group.

"The combination of GPA with test scores was the best prediction of which students eventually attained a college degree for all English Learner groups."

Allensworth 2025 (2)¶

Allensworth, E.M., de la Torre, M., Franklin, K., & Xu, J. (2025). Identifying Indicators to Support Educational Attainment for Different Groups of English Learners in High School. (Working Paper). Providence, RI: Annenberg EdExchange. https://edworkingpapers.com/ai25-1241

q2 · i? · associational · r2

A footnote to the degree-prediction finding cautions that the test-score relationship is partly compositional: high-scoring students concentrate at particular high schools, and the relationship weakens in within-school comparisons (Table 5).

"But the strength of relationship of test scores with college outcomes partially results because students with high test score s are more likely to be at particular high schools and when you compare students with different test scores in the same high schoo ls the relationship weakens (see Table 5 in the study)."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• SAT scores underpredict the academic performance of high school girls, who average lower scores than boys despite higher grades — the general claim this finding bears on, with the studies behind it
• Combining GPA or course failure rates with attendance provides the best prediction of high school graduation for most EL groups, while GPA plus test scores best predicts college degree attainment — a broader claim this one bears on
• Ninth grade GPAs are the single most predictive indicator of high school graduation, college enrollment, and degree completion for all English Learner groups — related
• Combining GPA with attendance, or course failure rates with attendance, gives the best prediction of high school graduation for most English Learner groups but not long-term English Learners with IEPs — related
• Contextualized high school GPA had a stronger relationship with college success than contextualized standardized test scores (Bastedo et al., attributed) — related
• Course grades and GPA predict high school and college outcomes better than standardized test scores or coursework — related
• Adding ACT scores to models with HSGPA contributes little to the prediction of college graduation and does not reduce between-school variability — reports the opposite
• College readiness is best understood as a property of interactions between students and the college context, not only individual skills — related