Among Chicago graduates who enter four-year colleges, high school GPA is the strongest predictor of graduating within six years¶
Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associationalr2·q2
Currency · newest study 2008 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person
Subclaims¶
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q2 i? Among Chicago graduates with similar ACT scores, those entering four-year colleges with a 3.0 unweighted GPA were 15 percentage points more likely to graduate within six years than those with a 2.5 GPA. → Jenny Nagaoka 2008
Evidence¶
Jenny Nagaoka 2008¶
Jenny Nagaoka, Melissa Roderick, and Vanessa Coca. (2008). Barriers to College Attainment: Lessons from Chicago. The Consortium on Chicago School Research at The University of Chicago / Center for American Progress. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/barriers-college-attainment-lessons-chicago
q2 · i? · associational · r2
An analysis of Chicago graduates from the classes of 1998 and 1999 designed to disentangle grades and test scores, controlling for student characteristics, course-taking, and other high school performance measures. It found students with a "3.0 unweighted GPA were 15 percentage points more likely to graduate" than peers with 2.5.
"Among similar Chicago students who entered a four-year college with similar achievement test scores, students who entered with a 3.0 unweighted GPA were 15 percentage points more likely to graduate from a four-year college within six years than students who entered a four-year college with a 2.5 GPA."
Discussion¶
Related Claims¶
- High school GPA predicts four-year college graduation more strongly than achievement test scores among Chicago graduates — a broader claim this one bears on
- Among students with the same ACT scores (21-23), college graduation rates are 77 percent for those with a high school GPA of 3.5 or higher versus 40 percent for those with a GPA of 2.0-2.4 — related
- Adding ACT scores to models with HSGPA does not improve prediction of college graduation or reduce high-school variance — related
- Students' grades are a more important predictor of college enrollment than ACT scores, which mainly constrain the selectivity of colleges attended — related
- High school GPA is the strongest predictor of college admission, persistence, and graduation, more than ACT or SAT scores — a broader claim this one bears on
- HSGPA strongly predicts six-year college graduation among four-year college enrollees, with odds of graduating doubling per standard deviation of HSGPA — related
- High school GPA is a better predictor of college graduation than standardized test scores, yet districts continue to rely on test-based readiness benchmarks — related
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
gpa-strongest-predictor-chicago-four-year-graduation |
title |
Among Chicago graduates who enter four-year colleges, high school GPA is the strongest predictor of graduating within six years |
description |
Among Chicago graduates who enter four-year colleges, high school GPA is the strongest predictor of graduating within six years |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
moderate |
newest_evidence |
2008 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-09 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
1 — jenny-nagaoka-2008 |
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