High school GPA predicts four-year college graduation more strongly than achievement test scores among Chicago graduates¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2009 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? A one standard deviation increase in unweighted high school GPA, controlling for test scores and advanced coursework, was associated with a 15 percentage point increase in four-year college graduation, versus 7 percentage points for test scores. → Melissa Roderick 2009 q2 i? An unweighted GPA of 3.0 is a key college readiness benchmark, giving students a 50 percent or greater likelihood of graduating from a four-year college within six years. → Melissa Roderick 2009 (2)

Evidence¶

Melissa Roderick 2009¶

Melissa Roderick, Jenny Nagaoka, and Vanessa Coca. (2009). College Readiness for All: The Challenge for Urban High Schools. The Future of Children. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/college-readiness-all-challenge-urban-high-schools doi:10.1353/foc.0.0024

q2 · i? · associational · r2

The authors' own analysis of Chicago Public Schools graduates used National Student Clearinghouse data on four-year enrollment and six-year graduation, modeled on unweighted GPA, honors/AP course-taking, and eleventh-grade test scores. GPA's association (15 percentage points) exceeded test scores' (7 percentage points); no standardized effect size is printed.

"A one standard deviation increase in GPA, controlling for test scores and participation in advanced coursework, was associated with a 15 percentage point increase in the chances of four-year college graduation, while a one standard deviation increase in achievement test scores was linked with only a 7 percentage point increase in those chances."

Melissa Roderick 2009 (2)¶

Melissa Roderick, Jenny Nagaoka, and Vanessa Coca. (2009). College Readiness for All: The Challenge for Urban High Schools. The Future of Children. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/college-readiness-all-challenge-urban-high-schools

q2 · i? · review · r2

In the same Chicago study, the authors report that "an unweighted GPA of 3.0" marked the cutoff at which students had a 50 percent or greater six-year four-college graduation likelihood. This is a descriptive benchmark, not a tested optimum.

"The study identified an unweighted GPA of 3.0 as a key benchmark for college readiness—a cutoff that gave students a 50 percent or greater likelihood of graduating from a four-year college within six years."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Ensuring a good match between students and the colleges in which they enroll significantly increases a student's chance of graduating — related
• High school GPA is a better predictor of college graduation than standardized test scores, yet districts continue to rely on test-based readiness benchmarks — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
• CPS graduates' grades predicted college enrollment: graduates needed at least a 2.5 GPA for close to a 50 percent likelihood of enrolling in a four-year college — related
• Among Chicago graduates who enter four-year colleges, high school GPA is the strongest predictor of graduating within six years — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• HSGPA strongly predicts six-year college graduation among four-year college enrollees, with odds of graduating doubling per standard deviation of HSGPA — related
• Course grades and GPA predict high school and college outcomes better than standardized test scores or coursework — a broader claim this one bears on
• CPS graduates with higher ACT scores had higher overall and four-year enrollment rates, and at least an ACT score of 18 gave at least a 50 percent probability of four-year enrollment — related
• Students' grades are a more important predictor of college enrollment than ACT scores, which mainly constrain the selectivity of colleges attended — related
• Both HSGPA and ACT strongly predict four-year college enrollment and enrollment in colleges with strong graduation rates — related
• School average ACT scores predict college graduation for students with the same individual HSGPA and ACT score, reducing between-school variance by 42 percent, while school poverty is not significant once average ACT is included — related