Ninth-grade on-track ELL students in Chicago were up to 3.5 times more likely to graduate than off-track students¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r? · q2
Currency · newest study 2012 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? ELL students on-track at the end of ninth grade were up to 3.5 times more likely to graduate than off-track students. → Ninth Grade Course Performance Found to Be the Strongest Predictor of High School Graduation for Chicago English Language Learners 2012

Evidence¶

Ninth Grade Course Performance Found to Be the Strongest Predictor of High School Graduation for Chicago English Language Learners 2012¶

Ninth Grade Course Performance Found to Be the Strongest Predictor of High School Graduation for Chicago English Language Learners. (2012). University of Chicago Consortium on Chicago School Research / National High School Center. http://www.betterhighschools.org

q2 · i? · associational · r?

Cohort study of CPS students in ninth grade in 2004-05 followed five years to 2009. The report states on-track ELLs were "up to 3.5 times more likely to graduate than off-track students"; no effect size or test statistic is printed.

"English Language Learners who are on on-track at the end of their freshman year were up to 3.5 times more likely to graduate than off-track students"

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Course performance indicators predict ELL graduation better than ELL-specific indicators such as proficiency level or education interruptions — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Ninth-graders who are on-track are 3.5 times more likely to graduate than those who are off-track — a broader claim this one bears on
• Ninth-grade on-track status predicts graduation more strongly than prior achievement, with a 55 percentage point gap after controls — related
• ELL newcomers entering CPS after age 12 graduated at lower rates than students with the same grades and attendance, with school quality the key associated factor — related
• Improvements in ninth-grade course performance—credits earned, pass rates, and attendance—account for most graduation improvements beyond student background changes — related
• Students off track after ninth grade are less than half as likely to graduate, with Black and Latino students 46% and 31% more likely than the national average to be off track in 2022 — related
• Students off track for graduation after ninth grade are less than half as likely to graduate than their on-track peers — related
• Students on track in ninth grade were four times more likely than off-track peers to graduate high school — a broader claim this one bears on