Ninth-grade early warning systems around course grades and attendance led to substantial improvements in grades, graduation rates, and test-measured learning gains¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · review r1 · q2
Currency · newest study 2021 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Use of ninth-grade early warning systems based on course grades and attendance produced substantial improvements in grades, graduation rates, and learning gains on tests. → Sebring 2021

Evidence¶

Sebring 2021¶

Sebring, Sall, Kheraj, Davis, Allensworth, de la Torre, & Beechum. (2021). Research and Engagement Agenda, 2021–25. UChicago Consortium on School Research. https://www.5-essentials.org/cps/5e/2018/s/610268/essentials/families/#trends?c=district&o=-change

q2 · i? · review · r1

The agenda summarizes prior Consortium research (citing Allensworth, Gwynne, Healey, & Crespin 2016) on early warning systems, reporting "substantial improvements in students’ grades, graduation rates, and learning gains". No effect sizes or sample details are printed in this document.

"The use of early warning systems around course grades and attendance in the ninth grade led to substantial improvements in students’ grades, graduation rates, and learning gains as measured on tests."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• AI-powered predictive analytics improves academic performance by enabling early identification of at-risk students and timely intervention — the general claim this finding bears on, with the studies behind it
• EWIMS significantly reduces chronic absenteeism among grade 9 and 10 students after one year of implementation — related
• BARR reduces ninth-grade chronic absenteeism in a large school-level randomized study — related
• Ninth-grade on-track status predicts graduation more strongly than prior achievement, with a 55 percentage point gap after controls — related
• Demopolis High School's Google Sheets-based student tracker was followed by a 7% drop in chronic absenteeism and over 3% change in graduation rate — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• The CRIS framework extends existing early warning systems beyond graduation and academic measures — related
• Chicago's graduation-rate improvements have been credited to changed ninth-grade dropout-prevention practices triggered by on-track accountability and real-time data reports, and the review states accountability by itself was not sufficient — related
• Students show signs of dropout risk early in high school, and schools that reach out in the ninth-grade year can keep them on track to graduate — related
• Monitoring all students and proactively intervening on early warning signs has minimal-level evidence of improving dropout-related outcomes — related
• Three freshman warning indicators—off-track status, any course failure, and attendance below 85 percent—identify 70 percent of eventual non-graduates — related