Students show signs of dropout risk early in high school, and schools that reach out in the ninth-grade year can keep them on track to graduate¶
Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · reviewr?·q1
Currency · newest study 2015 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person
Subclaims¶
Reading the evidence codes
q is the design tier, i the impact, n the sample, and the kind with its r
the rigour judged within that kind: what each code means.
This claim: no standardized effect is recorded in observations/ for it yet, so no benchmark reading is possible.
q1 i? Dropout risk signals emerge early in high school, and early ninth-grade outreach can keep students on track to graduate. → Prevention Science in School Settings chapter 2015
Evidence¶
Prevention Science in School Settings chapter 2015¶
Prevention Science in School Settings chapter, edited by Kris Bosworth. (2015). Dropout Prevention: A Previously Intractable Problem Addressed Through Systems for Monitoring and Supporting Students. Springer. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/dropout-prevention-previously-intractable-problem-addressed-through-systems-monitoring doi:10.1007/978-1-4939-3155-2_17
q1 · i? · review · r?
The chapter's overview asserts, citing prior research, that dropout risk signs appear early in high school: "schools that reach out to students early—in the ninth-grade year—can keep them on track to graduate." No study design or statistics are printed in the supplied text.
"research has shown that students show signs of dropout risk early on in high school, and schools that reach out to students early—in the ninth-grade year—can keep them on track to graduate."
Discussion¶
Related Claims¶
- BARR reduces ninth-grade chronic absenteeism in a large school-level randomized study — related
- Check & Connect has statistically significant positive effects on staying in school for high school students with disabilities — related
- Non-core course failures in ninth grade were associated with decreases in four-year graduation rates similar to core course failures — related
- Ninth-grade on-track status predicts graduation more strongly than prior achievement, with a 55 percentage point gap after controls — related
- Freshman OnTrack rates improved most among the highest-risk students, including Black and Latinx young men and the lowest-achieving entrants — related
- ALAS increases the likelihood that high-risk students stay on track to graduate on time at the end of the intervention — related
- Ninth-graders who are on-track are 3.5 times more likely to graduate than those who are off-track — related
- ALAS increases the likelihood that high-risk students remain enrolled in school at the end of the intervention — related
- The on-track indicator is strongly related to students' likelihood of graduating — related
- The report treats freshman on-track status as an early indicator correlated with later graduation and dropout — related
- Demopolis High School's Google Sheets-based student tracker was followed by a 7% drop in chronic absenteeism and over 3% change in graduation rate — related
- Lynwood Unified's custom dashboards and intervention tools were followed by a decrease in high school D/F rates of over 8% and 593 interventions logged in one year — related
- Attendance, behavior, and course performance (the ABC indicators) reliably predict which secondary students are at risk of dropping out — related
- Monitoring all students and proactively intervening on early warning signs has minimal-level evidence of improving dropout-related outcomes — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
- Twelve Together has potentially positive effects on staying in school, based on a lower (non-significant) dropout rate than control — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
- The CRIS framework extends existing early warning systems beyond graduation and academic measures — related
- Strong early-warning monitoring systems paired with strong norms and routines help students recover emotionally and engage academically — related
- Chicago's graduation-rate improvements have been credited to changed ninth-grade dropout-prevention practices triggered by on-track accountability and real-time data reports, and the review states accountability by itself was not sufficient — related
- Reviewed studies indicate AI predictive analytics can project student progress, group learners by risk, and enable early intervention — related
- AI-powered predictive analytics improves academic performance by enabling early identification of at-risk students and timely intervention — related
- Nature-based learning appears to work especially well for disadvantaged and disengaged students, potentially narrowing achievement gaps — related
- Former students who dropped out want colleges to proactively invite them to return and explain how to return — related
- Predictive learning analytics can generate early warnings of dropout risk and trigger targeted interventions in adult education — related
- Ninth-grade early warning systems around course grades and attendance led to substantial improvements in grades, graduation rates, and test-measured learning gains — related
- A substantial share of dropouts show no clear signs of disengagement or major problems in the years before dropping out — related
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
ninth-grade-early-outreach-keeps-students-on-track |
title |
Students show signs of dropout risk early in high school, and schools that reach out in the ninth-grade year can keep them on track to graduate |
description |
Students show signs of dropout risk early in high school, and schools that reach out in the ninth-grade year can keep them on track to graduate |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
weak |
newest_evidence |
2015 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-08 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
1 — prevention-science-in-school-settings-chapter-2015 |
Frontmatter is the page's machine-readable record — see the Schema & Guide.