On-track status predicts graduation better than eighth-grade test scores¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r2 · q3
Currency · newest study 2005 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2008: tool and model accuracy changes quickly

Subclaims¶

q3 i? Low eighth-grade scorers who were on-track graduated at high rates (68 percent), while high eighth-grade scorers who were off-track graduated at only 37 percent, so on-track status is a much better predictor than test scores. → Allensworth 2005

Evidence¶

Allensworth 2005¶

Allensworth, E. M., & Easton, J. Q. (2005). The On-Track Indicator as a Predictor of High School Graduation. Consortium on Chicago School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/track-indicator-predictor-high-school-graduation

q3 · i? · associational · r2

Observational analysis of the fall 2000 CPS freshman cohort by eighth-grade achievement quartile, reported with Figure 3. On-track students in the bottom quartile graduated at 68 percent, while off-track students in the top quartile graduated at 37 percent; the report concludes the indicator "is a much better predictor of graduation than eighth-grade test scores."

"More than 40 percent of the freshmen entering ninth grade in fall 2000 with low eighth-grade test scores (those in the bottom quarter of their class) were on-track at the end of their freshman year and 68 percent of these on-track students graduated four years later"

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Ninth-grade on-track status predicts graduation more strongly than prior achievement, with a 55 percentage point gap after controls — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
• Freshman OnTrack remains a strong predictor of high school graduation even as on-track rates have risen — related
• Ninth-grade GPA strongly predicts on-time high school graduation, with an especially large gap between F and D students — related
• Freshman-year GPA alone correctly predicts about 80 percent of on-time high school graduates — related
• The Freshman OnTrack indicator is more predictive of graduation than eighth-grade test scores, SES, race/ethnicity, gender, and school mobility combined, and raising it raises graduation rates — related