Freshman OnTrack remains a strong predictor of high school graduation even as on-track rates have risen¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2020 · checked against its sources 2026-10-08 (automated, 1 of 1 entry) · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2023: tool and model accuracy changes quickly

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Across CPS cohorts from 2007-08 to 2014-15, on-track freshmen graduated at rates around 86-88 percent while off-track freshmen graduated at rates around 30-35 percent, a gap that held as overall on-track rates rose. → Seeskin 2020

Evidence¶

Seeskin 2020¶

Seeskin, A., Mahaffie, S., & Usher, A. (2020). The forgotten year: Applying lessons from Freshman success to Sophomore year. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/the-forgotten-year

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Observational analysis of CPS freshman cohorts (Figure 1) shows four-year graduation rates of on-track freshmen (85.5-88.0%) versus off-track freshmen (29.7-35.1%) stayed "virtually unchanged" as on-track rates improved, so "on-track status remains a strong indicator" of graduation.

"although more students are now on-track, a student’s on-track status remains a strong indicator of whether they will graduate from high school."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• CPS Freshman OnTrack rates rose 25 percentage points, from 64 percent in 2003 to 89 percent in 2017 — related
• Freshman attendance below 85 percent predicts non-graduation even among students with similar grades — related
• Sophomore OnTrack rose from 61 to 85 percent and predicts graduation, but 30 percent of non-graduates were on-track as sophomores — related
• CPS Freshman OnTrack rates rose from 58 to 89 percent between 2007 and 2017 while graduation rates rose 19 percentage points — related
• Freshman OnTrack rates improved most among the highest-risk students, including Black and Latinx young men and the lowest-achieving entrants — related
• Freshman OnTrack improvements were largest in the lowest-performing schools, with bottom-quartile schools gaining 33 percentage points — related
• Ninth-grade on-track status predicts graduation more strongly than prior achievement, with a 55 percentage point gap after controls — related
• Ninth-grade GPA strongly predicts on-time high school graduation, with an especially large gap between F and D students — related
• Rising ninth-grade on-track rates did not negatively affect schools' average ACT scores — related
• On-track improvements were accompanied by across-the-board grade gains, not grade inflation from turning Fs into Ds — related
• On-track rates in Chicago improved over time alongside indicator-based data tool use — related
• Escaping a bottom-tier school raises four-year graduation rates, by 10 percentage points for top-tier schools and 3 for mid-tier schools — related
• The freshman on-track indicator predicts five-year graduation equally or more strongly for students with learning disabilities, mild cognitive disabilities or emotional disturbances than for students without disabilities, with on-track students two to six times more likely to graduate — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• On-track status predicts graduation better than eighth-grade test scores — related
• Freshman on-track students are over three times as likely to graduate in four years as off-track students in CPS — related
• The on-track indicator is strongly related to students' likelihood of graduating — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
• Citywide freshman on-track rates improved from 48 to 58 percent over a decade, with declines tied to increased course-taking — related
• Freshman on-track status is an early indicator correlated with later graduation, and being off track correlates with dropping out — a broader claim this one bears on
• Successfully transitioning from intermediate school to secondary school is pivotal for students to remain on track to graduate — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• CPS Freshman OnTrack rates rose 28 percentage points from 61 percent (2007) to 89 percent (2019), then flattened in recent years — related
• Chicago's on-track data system was associated with improved high school graduation rates — related
• Chicago's district-wide Freshman On-Track rate improved from 61 percent in 2006 to 85 percent in 2015 — related
• The Freshman OnTrack indicator is more predictive of graduation than eighth-grade test scores, SES, race/ethnicity, gender, and school mobility combined, and raising it raises graduation rates — related
• Long-term English Learners with IEPs were on-track in ninth grade at near district-average rates but graduated at substantially lower rates, similar to non-English Learners with IEPs — related
• Long-term English Learners without IEPs had the lowest Freshman OnTrack rate and substantially lower graduation rates than district average — related
• Students on track in ninth grade were four times more likely than off-track peers to graduate high school — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
• Eighth-grade graduates fared better in the transition to high school over time, but Freshman OnTrack rates were not consistently higher than at similar schools — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Schools vary widely in freshman on-track rates even among students with similar backgrounds — related