Freshman-year GPA alone correctly predicts about 80 percent of on-time high school graduates¶
Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · reviewr2·q2
Currency · newest study 2009 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2012: tool and model accuracy changes quickly
Subclaims¶
Reading the evidence codes
q is the design tier, i the impact, n the sample, and the kind with its r
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q2 i? Using only freshman-year GPA, Elaine Allensworth correctly predicted 80 percent of on-time high school graduates, outperforming eighth-grade test scores and student-risk measures combined. → Melissa Roderick 2009
Evidence¶
Melissa Roderick 2009¶
Melissa Roderick, Jenny Nagaoka, and Vanessa Coca. (2009). College Readiness for All: The Challenge for Urban High Schools. The Future of Children. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/college-readiness-all-challenge-urban-high-schools doi:10.1353/foc.0.0024
q2 · i? · review · r2
The article reports, citing Allensworth's analysis for the Consortium on Chicago School Research, that freshman-year GPA alone correctly predicted "80 percent of on-time high school graduates"; by contrast, eighth-grade test scores and risk measures together predicted only 65 percent. No effect size is printed.
"Using only freshman-year GPA, Elaine Allensworth from the Consortium on Chicago School Research at the University of Chicago was able to correctly predict 80 percent of on-time high school graduates."
Discussion¶
Related Claims¶
- On-track status predicts graduation better than eighth-grade test scores — related
- Ninth-grade GPA strongly predicts on-time high school graduation, with an especially large gap between F and D students — related
- Ninth-grade on-track status predicts graduation more strongly than prior achievement, with a 55 percentage point gap after controls — related
- Within every student category, freshman GPA, course failures, and absences are strongly related to five-year graduation rates, with large drops per half grade point, per additional course failure, and per absence band — related
- Freshman attendance below 85 percent predicts non-graduation even among students with similar grades — related
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
freshman-gpa-predicts-80-percent-ontime-graduation |
title |
Freshman-year GPA alone correctly predicts about 80 percent of on-time high school graduates |
description |
Freshman-year GPA alone correctly predicts about 80 percent of on-time high school graduates |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
weak |
newest_evidence |
2009 |
recheck_by |
2012 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-09 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
1 — melissa-roderick-2009 |
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