Few students identified as significantly below benchmark in grades 1–3 met MCAS expectations 1 or 2 years later, with higher rates for earlier identification¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2025 · checked against its sources 2026-10-20 (automated, 1 of 1 entry) · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? 11% of students identified in grade 1 met MCAS expectations by grade 3, versus 10% identified in grade 2 (tested grade 4) and 6% identified in grade 3 (tested grade 5). → Lemke 2025 q2 i? About 10% of students identified as significantly below benchmark at grade 2 met expectations as grade 3 students, versus 5% of students identified at grade 3 as grade 4 students. → Lemke 2025

Evidence¶

Lemke 2025¶

Lemke, M., Soo Ping Chow, A., LeBeau, B., & Quesen, S. (2025). Stuck at red: Persistent early literacy gaps and later state test performance. WestEd. https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED677637

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Linkage of screening data with state-provided MCAS data for just under 6,000 students with MCAS scores 1 year after significant-risk identification and about the same number 2 years later. The brief reports "only 6 percent of those identified in grade 3 and tested in grade 5" met expectations.

"Eleven percent of students identified in grade 1 met expectations by grade 3, compared with 10 percent of those identified in grade 2 and tested in grade 4 and only 6 percent of those identified in grade 3 and tested in grade 5"

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Screening assessment benchmarks indicating significant risk shift up and down on the MCAS scale within and across grades, so students with the same skills may be classified differently at different times — related
• Across school years, students identified as at risk in earlier grades were more likely to get on track by the end of the next grade than students in later grades — related
• Among students below benchmark at the start of grade 1, meeting screening benchmarks earlier is associated with higher grade 3 MCAS proficiency rates — related
• Early screening benchmark status predicts later performance: most beginning-of-year at-risk students stay at risk, and meeting benchmarks by end of grade 1 is associated with much higher grade 3 MCAS odds — related
• Exploratory analysis found no observed differences in later MCAS performance between students just below and just above screening risk thresholds — related
• Literacy screener benchmarks predict which grade 3 students will not meet MCAS ELA expectations, but not necessarily who will meet them — related
• The predictive value of grade 3 screening benchmarks for MCAS ELA proficiency varies widely: 15 to 69 percent of students classified as on track did not reach MCAS proficiency, and students flagged at risk rarely met proficiency — related
• Risk status tends to persist: 75 percent of students significantly below benchmark at BOY remained so at EOY, and earlier grades showed lower year-to-year persistence — related
• Students at later grade levels were more likely to remain at risk across school years than students at earlier grade levels — related
• A schoolwide literacy initiative based on deeper learning rapidly and sustainably raised achievement at a large low-income high school — related