Across school years, students identified as at risk in earlier grades were more likely to get on track by the end of the next grade than students in later grades¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r1 · q2
Currency · newest study 2023 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Of students at risk at BOY, 38 percent of kindergartners were still at risk at the end of grade 1, versus 54 percent for grade 1 students at the end of grade 2 and 69 percent for grade 2 students at the end of grade 3. → Lemke 2023

Evidence¶

Lemke 2023¶

Lemke, M., Murphy, D., Soo Ping Chow, A., Spencer, H., & Zhang, A. (2023). Supporting students early: Findings from initial analysis of student progress in early literacy in Massachusetts. WestEd. https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED638614

q2 · i? · associational · r1

Cross-year analysis of 855 students with BOY scores in 2020/21 and EOY scores in 2021/22 from the same screening assessment, about 2 percent of the 38,500-student sample. The brief reports "38 percent" still at risk after kindergarten versus 69 percent after grade 2.

"38 percent of students who were identified as at risk at the beginning of their kindergarten year were still at risk at the end of grade 1, compared to 54 percent of students who were identified as at risk at the start of grade 1 and were still at risk at the end of grade 2 and 69 percent of students who were identified as at risk at the start of grade 2"

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Most students identified as significantly below benchmark on early literacy screeners remain significantly below benchmark 1 and 2 years later — the general claim this finding bears on, with the studies behind it
• Students at later grade levels were more likely to remain at risk across school years than students at earlier grade levels — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
• Risk status tends to persist: 75 percent of students significantly below benchmark at BOY remained so at EOY, and earlier grades showed lower year-to-year persistence — related
• About 60 percent of students significantly below benchmark at BOY remained so at EOY, and improving to benchmark by MOY predicted meeting benchmark at EOY — related
• Most students at risk at BOY remain at risk later, but students who meet benchmark by midyear tend to stay on track — related
• Risk status is largely stable within the year, but 40 percent of students at risk at beginning of year met benchmark by end of year, and students on track by middle of year were significantly more likely to meet the end-of-year benchmark — related
• Few students identified as significantly below benchmark in grades 1–3 met MCAS expectations 1 or 2 years later, with higher rates for earlier identification — related
• Kindergarten students showed the largest BOY-to-EOY decline in significant risk identification, dropping 21 percentage points — related