Early screening benchmark status predicts later performance: most beginning-of-year at-risk students stay at risk, and meeting benchmarks by end of grade 1 is associated with much higher grade 3 MCAS odds¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (3 entries) · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2025 · checked against its sources 2026-10-17 (automated, 3 of 3 entries) · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? More than half of students identified as at significant risk at the beginning of the year were still at that level at the end of the year, and students who improved beyond the threshold typically maintained higher scores on screeners and grade 3 MCAS. → Lemke 2025 q2 i? Students who met reading benchmarks by the end of grade 1 were at least 1.3 times as likely to meet expectations on grade 3 MCAS ELA as students who met benchmarks later, and at least 5 times as likely as students who never met benchmarks. → Lemke 2025 (2) q2 i? Meeting screening benchmarks was not always sufficient for meeting MCAS expectations: many students who met screener benchmarks did not meet expectations on MCAS. → Lemke 2025 (3)

Evidence¶

Lemke 2025¶

Lemke, M., Faulkner-Bond, M., LeBeau, B., Soo Ping Chow, A., & Quesen, S. (2025). Early literacy performance in Massachusetts: Results of ongoing analysis of literacy screening assessments (2023/24 data). WestEd. https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED677571

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Longitudinal within-year and across-grade progress analysis of screening benchmark data reported in the key findings. It reports that "More than half the students identified as at significant risk at the beginning of the year were still at that level at the end of the year."

"More than half the students identified as at significant risk at the beginning of the year were still at that level at the end of the year. However, students who improved their performance beyond the significant risk threshold typically maintained higher scores on screening assessments and the grade 3 Massachusetts Comprehensive Assessment System (MCAS) test."

Lemke 2025 (2)¶

Lemke, M., Faulkner-Bond, M., LeBeau, B., Soo Ping Chow, A., & Quesen, S. (2025). Early literacy performance in Massachusetts: Results of ongoing analysis of literacy screening assessments (2023/24 data). WestEd. https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED677571

q2 · i? · associational · r2

This year's longitudinal follow-up of students identified as at significant risk at the beginning of grade 1 through grade 3, linking screener status to grade 3 MCAS ELA. The report prints odds ratios of "at least 1.3 times" and "at least 5 times" but no standardized effect size.

"Students who met reading benchmarks by the end of grade 1 were at least 1.3 times as likely to meet expectations on the MCAS English language arts (ELA) assessment in grade 3 as were students who met benchmarks later, and they were at least 5 times as likely to meet expectations as students who never met benchmarks."

Lemke 2025 (3)¶

Lemke, M., Faulkner-Bond, M., LeBeau, B., Soo Ping Chow, A., & Quesen, S. (2025). Early literacy performance in Massachusetts: Results of ongoing analysis of literacy screening assessments (2023/24 data). WestEd. https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED677571

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Report's repeated finding across years of analysis linking screener benchmark status to grade 3 MCAS: "even students who met screening assessment benchmarks did not meet expectations on MCAS" in many cases, which the authors attribute to skills screeners do not measure.

"In many cases, even students who met screening assessment benchmarks did not meet expectations on MCAS, pointing to the need for comprehensive literacy instruction that addresses higher-level ELA and writing skills not typically measured by screening assessments."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Screening assessment benchmarks indicating significant risk shift up and down on the MCAS scale within and across grades, so students with the same skills may be classified differently at different times — related
• Risk status is largely stable within the year, but 40 percent of students at risk at beginning of year met benchmark by end of year, and students on track by middle of year were significantly more likely to meet the end-of-year benchmark — related
• Among students below benchmark at the start of grade 1, meeting screening benchmarks earlier is associated with higher grade 3 MCAS proficiency rates — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
• Few students identified as significantly below benchmark in grades 1–3 met MCAS expectations 1 or 2 years later, with higher rates for earlier identification — related
• About 60 percent of students significantly below benchmark at BOY remained so at EOY, and improving to benchmark by MOY predicted meeting benchmark at EOY — related
• Most students identified as significantly below benchmark on early literacy screeners remain significantly below benchmark 1 and 2 years later — related
• English learners' progress beyond the significant risk level differed by test language: 21 percent stayed above threshold in English and 19 percent improved to it, versus 11 percent improving in Spanish — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Exploratory analysis found no observed differences in later MCAS performance between students just below and just above screening risk thresholds — related
• Literacy screener benchmarks predict which grade 3 students will not meet MCAS ELA expectations, but not necessarily who will meet them — related
• A schoolwide literacy initiative based on deeper learning rapidly and sustainably raised achievement at a large low-income high school — related
• Most students at risk at BOY remain at risk later, but students who meet benchmark by midyear tend to stay on track — related
• The predictive value of grade 3 screening benchmarks for MCAS ELA proficiency varies widely: 15 to 69 percent of students classified as on track did not reach MCAS proficiency, and students flagged at risk rarely met proficiency — related