Risk status tends to persist: 75 percent of students significantly below benchmark at BOY remained so at EOY, and earlier grades showed lower year-to-year persistence¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2025 · checked against its sources 2026-10-20 (automated, 2 of 2 entries) · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Seventy-five percent of students identified as significantly below benchmark at BOY were still significantly below benchmark at EOY, and most identified at EOY remain at significant risk into later grades. → Early Literacy Performance in Massachusetts: Key Findings From 2023/24 School Year Data 2025 q2 i? Students in earlier grades consistently showed a lower likelihood of remaining at significant risk from year to year compared with students in later grades. → Early Literacy Performance in Massachusetts: Key Findings From 2023/24 School Year Data 2025 (2)

Evidence¶

Early Literacy Performance in Massachusetts: Key Findings From 2023/24 School Year Data 2025¶

Early Literacy Performance in Massachusetts: Key Findings From 2023/24 School Year Data. (2025). WestEd. https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED677570

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Longitudinal analysis of 2023/24 screening periods and prior-year data. The brief reports that "Seventy-five percent of students identified as significantly below benchmark at BOY were still significantly below benchmark at EOY" and that most remain at risk into later grades.

"Seventy-five percent of students identified as significantly below benchmark at BOY were still significantly below benchmark at EOY. Most students identified as at significant risk at EOY remain at significant risk into later grades."

Early Literacy Performance in Massachusetts: Key Findings From 2023/24 School Year Data 2025 (2)¶

Early Literacy Performance in Massachusetts: Key Findings From 2023/24 School Year Data. (2025). WestEd. https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED677570

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Comparison of year-to-year risk persistence by grade in the 2023/24 and earlier data. The brief reports that "students in earlier grades consistently showed a lower likelihood of remaining at significant risk from year to year compared with students in later grades."

"students in earlier grades consistently showed a lower likelihood of remaining at significant risk from year to year compared with students in later grades"

Discussion¶

Learner Variables¶

• Statistical Reasoning — predictor: learners who differ on it differ in outcomes

Related Claims¶

• Risk status is largely stable within the year, but 40 percent of students at risk at beginning of year met benchmark by end of year, and students on track by middle of year were significantly more likely to meet the end-of-year benchmark — related
• Students at later grade levels were more likely to remain at risk across school years than students at earlier grade levels — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Across school years, students identified as at risk in earlier grades were more likely to get on track by the end of the next grade than students in later grades — related
• Most students below benchmark at the beginning of the year remained below at the end, with persistence highest for historically marginalized student groups (67–80 percent) — related
• About 60 percent of students significantly below benchmark at BOY remained so at EOY, and improving to benchmark by MOY predicted meeting benchmark at EOY — related
• Most students identified as significantly below benchmark on early literacy screeners remain significantly below benchmark 1 and 2 years later — related
• Most students at risk at BOY remain at risk later, but students who meet benchmark by midyear tend to stay on track — related
• Across grades K–3, the percentage of students below literacy benchmarks decreases more from BOY to EOY in earlier grades than in grade 3 — related
• Kindergarten students showed the largest BOY-to-EOY decline in significant risk identification, dropping 21 percentage points — related
• Few students identified as significantly below benchmark in grades 1–3 met MCAS expectations 1 or 2 years later, with higher rates for earlier identification — related
• The percentage of students who stay at risk across time periods increases across grade levels K–3 — related
• The percentage of Massachusetts K–3 students identified as significantly below benchmark decreased from 36 percent at BOY to 29 percent at EOY in 2022/23 — related
• In Massachusetts K-3 screening data, roughly one quarter to one third of students are significantly below benchmark at any given period and 16 to 19 percent are below benchmark in all three periods, rates consistent over three years — related