Posterior probability lesson with natural frequencies, optional diagrams, and embedded questions or elaborative interrogations

Design · All designs
Evidence · 2 claims (2 for) · 1 study (1 causal), q3 · 1 of 1 report an effect size · 2 claims rest on one study

Description

A paper-and-pencil statistics lesson adapted from Heuer (1999) with materials from Sedlmeier and Gigerenzer's (2001) experiments, presenting "two examples of scenarios in which base rate and specificity probabilities were presented, and then the posterior probability was calculated using natural frequencies." Diagram conditions varied whether diagram information was also in the text; questioning conditions placed one question after approximately every paragraph. The lesson was evaluated in a randomized experiment with 245 undergraduates.

Design Implications

Context

Requirements

• All lessons began with a reminder that participants would answer questions based on the lesson; control participants were instructed to read the lesson twice.

Constraints

• Posttest and pretest problems were presented as text only, with no visuals.

Target Learners

• undergraduate students in introductory psychology

Learning Goals

• calculating posterior probability from base rate and specificity information

Claims

• Diagrams Help Pretest Correct Students Posterior Probability [+M]
• Diagram Redundant Text Benefit Pretest Incorrect Read Twice [+M]

Related Designs

Examples

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Key Sources

• Clinton, V., Alibali, M. W., & Nathan, M. J. (2013). The effects of diagrams and questioning-while-reading on learning from a statistics lesson. In Martinez, M. & Castro Superfine, A. (Eds.), Proceedings of the 35th annual meeting of the North American Chapter of the International Group for the Psychology of Mathematics Education. Chicago, IL: University of Illinois at Chicago.

Page metadata

Field	Value
type	design
id	posterior-probability-lesson-diagrams-questioning
title	Posterior probability lesson with natural frequencies, optional diagrams, and embedded questions or elaborative interrogations
description	A paper-and-pencil statistics lesson adapted from Heuer (1999) with materials from Sedlmeier and Gigerenzer's (2001) experiments, presenting "two examples of scenarios in which base rate and specificity probabilities...
status	review
generated	by process:settle-candidates on 2026-11-01
trust	unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content
sources	1 — clinton-2013

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