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Prediction versus explanation as two cultures of statistical modelling in educational psychology

Research Method · All research methods
Evidence · 1 claim (1 for) · 1 study (1 associational), q3 · 0 of 1 report an effect size · 1 claim rests on one study

Description

The article articulates a framework distinguishing explanatory from predictive statistical modelling. Explanatory approaches build parsimonious, theory-derived models to understand mechanisms, assessing fit on the same data used to build them; by contrast, "the predictive culture does not prioritise explaining the mechanisms underpinning a phenomenon: it instead optimises directly for accuracy on future data". The framework centres on overfitting — where a model predicts training data but fails to generalise — and holds that both approaches are needed, since prediction errors can point to gaps in explanatory models.

Accounts

  • Prediction versus explanation as two cultures of statistical modelling in educational psychology: The article articulates a framework distinguishing explanatory from predictive statistical modelling. Explanatory approaches build parsimonious, theory-derived models to understand mechanisms, assessing fit on the same data used to build them; by contrast, "the predictive culture does not prioritise explaining the mechanisms underpinning a phenomenon: it instead optimises directly for accuracy on future data". The framework centres on overfitting — where a model predicts training data but fails to generalise — and holds that both approaches are needed, since prediction errors can point to gaps in explanatory models. (Michael Noetel et al. (2023))

Claims

Key Sources

  • Michael Noetel, Philip Parker, Theresa Dicke, Mark R. Beauchamp, Nikos Ntoumanis, Ryan M. Hulteen, et al. (2023). Prediction Versus Explanation in Educational Psychology: a Cross-Theoretical Approach to Using Teacher Behaviour to Predict Student Engagement in Physical Education. Educational Psychology Review. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10648-023-09786-6
Page metadata
Field Value
type research-method
id prediction-versus-explanation-as-two-cultures-of-statistical-modelling-in-educational-psyc
title Prediction versus explanation as two cultures of statistical modelling in educational psychology
description The article articulates a framework distinguishing explanatory from predictive statistical modelling.
status review
generated by process:settle-candidates on 2026-10-19
trust unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content

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