Use an unweighted GPA of 3.0 as a college readiness benchmark signaling a high probability of four-year college graduation¶

Strategy · All strategies
Evidence · 6 claims (6 for) · 5 studies (4 associational, 1 review), q2–q3 · 0 of 5 report an effect size · 6 claims rest on one study

Description¶

The article recommends that high schools and districts treat an unweighted GPA of 3.0 as a validated readiness standard: "a cutoff that gave students a 50 percent or greater likelihood of graduating from a four-year college within six years" in the authors' Chicago analysis. GPA is emphasized because it captures non-cognitive skills like work effort, predicts graduation, and avoids the graduation-versus-college-access trade-off created by raising exit-exam standards.

Design Implications¶

Context¶

Requirements¶

• Districts must track unweighted GPA and be able to report graduates' college outcomes to validate the benchmark locally

Constraints¶

• In the Chicago data, average GPAs of Latino and African American graduates remained below the 3.0 benchmark
• The article warns the FAFSA-style selection concerns do not apply here, but notes grade inflation is one theory driving rising GPAs

Target Learners¶

• Urban high school students, particularly low-income and minority students

Target Learning Goals¶

• College readiness and four-year college completion

Claims¶

• High school GPA is a better predictor of college graduation than standardized test scores, yet districts continue to rely on test-based readiness benchmarks [+W]
• Among Chicago graduates who enter four-year colleges, high school GPA is the strongest predictor of graduating within six years [+W]
• For four-year (rather than six-year) graduation, ACT scores are slightly predictive but their coefficient is one-sixth the HSGPA coefficient [+W]
• Contextualized high school GPA had a stronger relationship with college success than contextualized standardized test scores (Bastedo et al., attributed) [+W]
• High school GPA is the strongest predictor of college admission, persistence, and graduation, more than ACT or SAT scores [+W]
• Increasing high school GPA by 0.4 points has a larger impact on four-year college graduation than increasing ACT by 2 points for CPS students of all academic qualifications [+W]

Related Strategies¶

• Align high school graduation standards, assessments, and course requirements with college readiness so a diploma signals preparation for credit-bearing college work

Examples¶

-

Key Sources¶

• Melissa Roderick, Jenny Nagaoka, and Vanessa Coca. (2009). College Readiness for All: The Challenge for Urban High Schools. The Future of Children. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/college-readiness-all-challenge-urban-high-schools