Freshman on-track status is an early indicator correlated with later graduation, and being off track correlates with dropping out¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · associational r1 · q2
Currency · newest study 1999 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? The report states that whether students are on track is correlated with whether they will graduate, making on-track status an early indicator of academic success. → Shazia Rafiullah Miller 1999 q2 i? The report states that being off track correlates with dropping out. → Shazia Rafiullah Miller 1999 (2)

q2 i? Being on track in the freshman year is correlated with graduating, and being off track correlates with dropping out. → Shazia Rafiullah Miller 1999

Evidence¶

Shazia Rafiullah Miller 1999¶

Shazia Rafiullah Miller, Stuart Luppescu, Robert M. Gladden, John Q. Easton. (1999). How Do Barton Graduates Perform in CPS High Schools? Consortium on Chicago School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/how-do-barton-graduates-perform-cps-high-schools

q2 · i? · associational · r1

Definitional statement in the report's Definitions section about the on-track measure used throughout the report: students with no more than one F in a core course and enough credits to advance on time. The correlation claim is the report's own, unaccompanied by a printed statistic.

"Whether or not students are on track is correlated with whether they will graduate, so it is an early indicator of students' academic success."

Shazia Rafiullah Miller 1999 (2)¶

Shazia Rafiullah Miller, Stuart Luppescu, Robert M. Gladden, John Q. Easton. (1999). How Do Barton Graduates Perform in CPS High Schools? Consortium on Chicago School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/how-do-barton-graduates-perform-cps-high-schools

q2 · i? · associational · r1

A second definitional statement from the same section, defining off-track students as those with more than one core-course F or insufficient credits, and stating that being off track correlates with dropping out. No effect size is printed.

"Being off track correlates with dropping out."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Barton freshmen in 1997–98: 31 of 74 on track, 29 off track, 6 dropped out, 8 left CPS — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• The on-track indicator is strongly related to students' likelihood of graduating — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
• Freshman OnTrack remains a strong predictor of high school graduation even as on-track rates have risen — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Ninth-grade on-track status predicts graduation more strongly than prior achievement, with a 55 percentage point gap after controls — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Three freshman warning indicators—off-track status, any course failure, and attendance below 85 percent—identify 70 percent of eventual non-graduates — related
• By the end of sophomore year, 84 percent of eventual non-graduates showed at least one warning indicator — related
• Sophomore OnTrack rose from 61 to 85 percent and predicts graduation, but 30 percent of non-graduates were on-track as sophomores — related
• Attendance, behavior, and course performance (the ABC indicators) reliably predict which secondary students are at risk of dropping out — related
• The CRIS framework extends existing early warning systems beyond graduation and academic measures — related
• Students show signs of dropout risk early in high school, and schools that reach out in the ninth-grade year can keep them on track to graduate — related
• Ninth-graders who are on-track are 3.5 times more likely to graduate than those who are off-track — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Adolescents classified as impatient are more likely to drop out of high school even when they state an intention to finish — related
• Composite 8th grade indicators identified 75 to 77 percent of eventual off-track students but raised false-positive rates to about 30 percent — a narrower finding that bears on this claim