Sophomore OnTrack rose from 61 to 85 percent and predicts graduation, but 30 percent of non-graduates were on-track as sophomores¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2020 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2023: tool and model accuracy changes quickly

Subclaims¶

q2 i? The Sophomore OnTrack rate grew from 61 percent (2007-08 cohort) to 85 percent (2016-17 cohort), and off-track sophomore status strongly predicts non-graduation, yet the indicator misses many eventual non-graduates. → Seeskin 2020

Evidence¶

Seeskin 2020¶

Seeskin, A., Mahaffie, S., & Usher, A. (2020). The forgotten year: Applying lessons from Freshman success to Sophomore year. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/the-forgotten-year

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Cohort analysis of CPS students (Figure 4) shows sophomore off-track status is highly predictive: "only 28 percent" of off-track sophomores graduated within four years. A second analysis found 30 percent of all non-graduates were on-track as sophomores, showing the indicator's limits.

"only 28 percent of the 2014–15 freshman cohort (graduating class of 2018) who were off-track at the end of sophomore year graduated from high school within four years"

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Freshman attendance below 85 percent predicts non-graduation even among students with similar grades — related
• Freshman OnTrack remains a strong predictor of high school graduation even as on-track rates have risen — related
• Three freshman warning indicators—off-track status, any course failure, and attendance below 85 percent—identify 70 percent of eventual non-graduates — related
• Gains in sophomore performance were unequal: about one in five Latino and Black young men were off-track at the end of sophomore year — related
• By the end of sophomore year, 84 percent of eventual non-graduates showed at least one warning indicator — related
• CPS Freshman OnTrack rates rose from 58 to 89 percent between 2007 and 2017 while graduation rates rose 19 percentage points — related
• On-track rates in Chicago improved over time alongside indicator-based data tool use — related
• Freshman on-track students are over three times as likely to graduate in four years as off-track students in CPS — related
• The on-track indicator is strongly related to students' likelihood of graduating — related
• Freshman on-track status is an early indicator correlated with later graduation, and being off track correlates with dropping out — related
• Chicago's district-wide Freshman On-Track rate improved from 61 percent in 2006 to 85 percent in 2015 — related
• Composite 8th grade indicators identified 75 to 77 percent of eventual off-track students but raised false-positive rates to about 30 percent — related
• CPS Freshman OnTrack rates rose 28 percentage points from 61 percent (2007) to 89 percent (2019), then flattened in recent years — related
• Schools vary widely in freshman on-track rates even among students with similar backgrounds — related