The first two semester course failures in ninth grade are associated with a 30 percentage point decrease in the probability of graduating¶
Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associationalr2·q2
Currency · newest study 2021 · checked against its sources 2026-10-20 (automated, 1 of 1 entry) · not reviewed by a person
Subclaims¶
Reading the evidence codes
q is the design tier, i the impact, n the sample, and the kind with its r
the rigour judged within that kind: what each code means.
This claim: no standardized effect is recorded in observations/ for it yet, so no benchmark reading is possible.
q2 i? In Chicago, the first two semester course failures are associated with 30 percentage point decreases in the probability of graduating. → Roderick 2021
Evidence¶
Roderick 2021¶
Roderick, M., & Kelley-Kemple, T., with Johnson, D. W., & Ryan, S. (2021). The Preventable Failure: Improvements in High School Graduation Rates when High Schools Focus on the Ninth-Grade Year. University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/the-preventable-failure
q2 · i? · associational · r2
A Consortium estimate summarized in the report's ninth-grade research box finds "the first two semester course failures are associated with 30 percentage point decreases in the probability of graduating" (Figure A). Observational association; no standardized effect size printed.
"the UChicago Consortium estimated that the link between ninth-grade course failure and eventual graduation is so strong that the first two semester course failures are associated with 30 percentage point decreases in the probability of graduating"
Discussion¶
Related Claims¶
- Non-core course failures in ninth grade were associated with decreases in four-year graduation rates similar to core course failures — related
- Ninth-grade on-track status predicts graduation more strongly than prior achievement, with a 55 percentage point gap after controls — related
- Most students needing Algebra I credit recovery failed multiple ninth-grade courses and few were on track to graduate — related
- Ninth-grade GPA strongly predicts on-time high school graduation, with an especially large gap between F and D students — related
- Missing five days of school in the first semester of ninth grade decreases the likelihood of eventually graduating high school by 25 percentage points — related
- Core-course failures in freshman year strongly predict non-graduation, similarly across subjects — related
Page metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
type |
claim |
id |
first-two-course-failures-30-point-graduation-decrease |
title |
The first two semester course failures in ninth grade are associated with a 30 percentage point decrease in the probability of graduating |
description |
The first two semester course failures in ninth grade are associated with a 30 percentage point decrease in the probability of graduating |
status |
review |
evidence_strength |
moderate |
newest_evidence |
2021 |
source_checked |
2026-10-20 |
generated |
by process:wiki-ingest on 2026-10-08 |
trust |
unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content |
sources |
1 — roderick-2021 |
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