Non-core course failures in ninth grade were associated with decreases in four-year graduation rates similar to core course failures¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2018 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Among 2011-14 freshman cohorts, students with one core failure and no other failures graduated at 70 percent; students with one non-core failure and no other failures graduated at 68 percent; students passing all courses graduated at 90 percent. → Seeskin 2018 q2 i? More than 3,500 students (6.7 percent of ninth-graders) were on-track but failed at least one non-core semester; the 326 students who failed one core semester and two non-core semesters had a 44 percent graduation rate. → Seeskin 2018 (2)

Evidence¶

Seeskin 2018¶

Seeskin, A., Nagaoka, J., & Mahaffie, S. (2018). Hidden risk: Changes in GPA across the transition to high school. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/hidden-risk-changes-gpa-across-transition-high-school

q2 · i? · associational · r?

Observational analysis of 2011-14 CPS freshman cohorts relating ninth-grade failure counts to four-year graduation (Table 1). "the graduation rate for students with one core course failure and no other failures in ninth grade was 70 percent" versus 68 percent for one non-core failure; students passing all courses had a 90 percent graduation rate.

"the graduation rate for students with one core course failure and no other failures in ninth grade was 70 percent; for students with one non-core course failure and no other failures, the graduation rate was very similar, at 68 percent"

Seeskin 2018 (2)¶

Seeskin, A., Nagaoka, J., & Mahaffie, S. (2018). Hidden risk: Changes in GPA across the transition to high school. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/hidden-risk-changes-gpa-across-transition-high-school

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Observational analysis of 2011-14 cohorts (Table 1). The report notes more than 3,500 students (6.7 percent) achieved on-track status while failing at least one non-core semester, and "the 326 students who failed only one semester of a core course but failed two semesters of non-core courses" graduated at only 44 percent.

"the 326 students who failed only one semester of a core course but failed two semesters of non-core courses likely received an on-track status in the ninth grade, but only 44 percent of them went on to graduate from high school within four years"

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• High school civic engagement is associated with higher graduation rates for all students regardless of age at entry, race, or gender — related
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• Students who fail algebra are significantly less likely to graduate on time, and algebra failure rates are consistently high in urban districts — related
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• Freshman failures clustered in math more than English, and many students failed both core subjects — related
• Nearly 90 percent of Chicago freshmen who miss less than a week of school per semester graduate, regardless of 8th grade test scores — related