Missing five days of school in the first semester of ninth grade decreases the likelihood of eventually graduating high school by 25 percentage points¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · review r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2018 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Missing just five days of school in the first semester of ninth grade decreases the likelihood of eventually graduating high school by 25 percentage points. → Allensworth 2018

Evidence¶

Allensworth 2018¶

Allensworth, E.M., Farrington, C.A., Gordon, M.F., Johnson, D.W., Klein, K., McDaniel, B., & Nagaoka, J. (2018). Supporting social, emotional, & academic development: Research implications for educators. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/page/presentations

q2 · i? · review · r2

The review reports, citing Allensworth & Easton (2007), that early ninth-grade absence sharply reduces graduation likelihood: "Missing just five days of school in the first semester of ninth grade decreases the likelihood of eventually graduating high school by 25 percentage points." A percentage-point difference is reported, not a standardized effect size.

"Missing just five days of school in the first semester of ninth grade decreases the likelihood of eventually graduating high school by 25 percentage points."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Freshman attendance below 85 percent predicts non-graduation even among students with similar grades — related
• Within every student category, freshman GPA, course failures, and absences are strongly related to five-year graduation rates, with large drops per half grade point, per additional course failure, and per absence band — related
• Attendance Support students maintained a 3.0 GPA despite low attendance but graduated high school at 71 percent, below the district average, and fewer than half attended college — related
• Low attendance is linked with lower academic skills, grades, and high school graduation, and high attendance with higher ones — a broader claim this one bears on
• Schools with strong social-emotional value-added help ninth-grade students stay on track and miss school less often — related
• The first two semester course failures in ninth grade are associated with a 30 percentage point decrease in the probability of graduating — related
• Ninth-grade on-track status predicts graduation more strongly than prior achievement, with a 55 percentage point gap after controls — related