Freshman attendance below 85 percent predicts non-graduation even among students with similar grades¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2020 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Among students with a freshman GPA between 2.0 and 2.5, more than 90 percent of those attending at least 95 percent graduated, versus 59 percent of those attending 80-85 percent. → Seeskin 2020

Evidence¶

Seeskin 2020¶

Seeskin, A., Mahaffie, S., & Usher, A. (2020). The forgotten year: Applying lessons from Freshman success to Sophomore year. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/the-forgotten-year

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Cohort analysis of 2014-15 freshmen (Figure 8) crosses freshman GPA bands with attendance bands; within the 2.0-2.5 GPA band, graduation ranged from above 90 percent (95+ percent attendance) to "59 percent" (80-85 percent attendance), showing attendance predicts graduation independent of grades.

"among students with a freshman GPA between 2.0 and 2.5, more than 90 percent of students with an attendance rate of at least 95 percent went on to graduate from high school within four years, while the graduation rate for students with an attendance rate of 80-85 percent who earned similar grades was 59 percent"

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Low attendance is linked with lower academic skills, grades, and high school graduation, and high attendance with higher ones — the general claim this finding bears on, with the studies behind it
• Three freshman warning indicators—off-track status, any course failure, and attendance below 85 percent—identify 70 percent of eventual non-graduates — related
• Non-core course failures in ninth grade were associated with decreases in four-year graduation rates similar to core course failures — related
• By the end of sophomore year, 84 percent of eventual non-graduates showed at least one warning indicator — related
• Freshman OnTrack remains a strong predictor of high school graduation even as on-track rates have risen — related
• Sophomore OnTrack rose from 61 to 85 percent and predicts graduation, but 30 percent of non-graduates were on-track as sophomores — related
• Student attendance is closely tied to a range of educational outcomes — a broader claim this one bears on
• Ninth-grade GPA strongly predicts on-time high school graduation, with an especially large gap between F and D students — related
• Within every student category, freshman GPA, course failures, and absences are strongly related to five-year graduation rates, with large drops per half grade point, per additional course failure, and per absence band — related
• Most Chicago freshmen fail at least one course, miss substantial school, or earn below a C average in their first year — related
• Nearly 90 percent of Chicago freshmen who miss less than a week of school per semester graduate, regardless of 8th grade test scores — related
• Absences remained as strongly related to test scores and GPAs in post-pandemic years as pre-pandemic years — related
• Missing five days of school in the first semester of ninth grade decreases the likelihood of eventually graduating high school by 25 percentage points — related
• Attendance Support students maintained a 3.0 GPA despite low attendance but graduated high school at 71 percent, below the district average, and fewer than half attended college — related
• Behavior indicators show inconsistent predictive strength for high school graduation: several studies find them strongly predictive, but behavior was not predictive in Chicago above and beyond grades and attendance — related
• Risk thresholds on GPA and attendance differ for active English Learners: above 95% attendance or above 2.0 GPA predicted ~90% graduation for active ELs, while former and never ELs reached similar likelihood at 90% attendance — related
• In a Chicago middle-grades study, the combination of grades and attendance provided the best prediction of high school on-track rates, and adding test scores and grit measures did not further improve prediction — related
• Freshman-year GPA alone correctly predicts about 80 percent of on-time high school graduates — related