Among students with the same ACT scores (21-23), college graduation rates are 77 percent for those with a high school GPA of 3.5 or higher versus 40 percent for those with a GPA of 2.0-2.4¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · review r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2018 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Holding ACT scores constant (21-23), four-year college graduation rates are 77 percent among students with a high school GPA of 3.5 or higher but 40 percent among those with a GPA of 2.0-2.4. → Allensworth 2018 q2 i? High school GPAs are by far the strongest predictors of college graduation, and course grades show college readiness much more than test scores. → Allensworth 2018 (2)

Evidence¶

Allensworth 2018¶

Allensworth, E.M., Farrington, C.A., Gordon, M.F., Johnson, D.W., Klein, K., McDaniel, B., & Nagaoka, J. (2018). Supporting social, emotional, & academic development: Research implications for educators. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/page/presentations

q2 · i? · review · r?

The review reports, citing Healey, Nagaoka, & Michelman (2014), a comparison holding ACT scores constant: "college graduation rates are 77 percent among those with a high school GPA of 3.5 or higher, but 40 percent among those with a high school GPA of 2.0–2.4." Descriptive rates only; no effect size printed.

"Among students who have the same ACT scores (21–23) and enroll in a four-year college, college graduation rates are 77 percent among those with a high school GPA of 3.5 or higher, but 40 percent among those with a high school GPA of 2.0–2.4."

Allensworth 2018 (2)¶

Allensworth, E.M., Farrington, C.A., Gordon, M.F., Johnson, D.W., Klein, K., McDaniel, B., & Nagaoka, J. (2018). Supporting social, emotional, & academic development: Research implications for educators. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/page/presentations

q2 · i? · review · r2

The review asserts, citing multiple studies including Allensworth & Clark (2018) and Geiser & Santelices (2007), that GPAs reflecting student effort are "by far the strongest predictors of college graduation," more important than any test benchmark including the ACT or SAT.

"High school GPAs, which are largely a reflection of the effort that students put into their classes, are by far the strongest predictors of college graduation."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Ninth-grade GPA strongly predicts on-time high school graduation, with an especially large gap between F and D students — related
• High school GPA is a better predictor of college graduation than standardized test scores, yet districts continue to rely on test-based readiness benchmarks — a broader claim this one bears on
• Among Chicago graduates who enter four-year colleges, high school GPA is the strongest predictor of graduating within six years — related
• Students' grades are a more important predictor of college enrollment than ACT scores, which mainly constrain the selectivity of colleges attended — related
• High school GPA is the strongest predictor of college admission, persistence, and graduation, more than ACT or SAT scores — a broader claim this one bears on