Students' grades are a more important predictor of college enrollment than ACT scores, which mainly constrain the selectivity of colleges attended¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · associational r2–r3 · q2
Currency · newest study 2008 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Among students with similar ACT scores, Chicago students with higher GPAs were significantly more likely to enroll in college, in four-year colleges, and in selective or very selective four-year colleges. → Jenny Nagaoka 2008 q2 i? Students with ACT scores below 17 had only slightly lower probabilities of enrolling in college than students with ACT scores above 24, but were much more likely to enroll in two-year colleges. → Jenny Nagaoka 2008 (2)

Evidence¶

Jenny Nagaoka 2008¶

Jenny Nagaoka, Melissa Roderick, and Vanessa Coca. (2008). Barriers to College Attainment: Lessons from Chicago. The Consortium on Chicago School Research at The University of Chicago / Center for American Progress. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/barriers-college-attainment-lessons-chicago

q2 · i? · associational · r2

A series of multivariate analyses estimated differences among Chicago graduates by ACT score and unweighted GPA in likelihood of enrolling in colleges of varying selectivity. Grades predicted enrollment across all outcomes; the article reports significance without effect sizes.

"Students' grades emerge as a more important predictor of college enrollment than ACT scores. Among students with similar ACT scores, students with higher GPAs were significantly more likely to enroll in college, in four-year colleges, and in selective or very selective four-year colleges."

Jenny Nagaoka 2008 (2)¶

Jenny Nagaoka, Melissa Roderick, and Vanessa Coca. (2008). Barriers to College Attainment: Lessons from Chicago. The Consortium on Chicago School Research at The University of Chicago / Center for American Progress. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/barriers-college-attainment-lessons-chicago

q2 · i? · associational · r3

The same multivariate analyses found poor test performance did not significantly lower overall college enrollment but constrained students' range of college options toward two-year and nonselective institutions.

"Students with ACT scores lower than 17 had only slightly lower probabilities of enrolling in college than their classmates with ACT scores over 24. However, these students were much more likely to enroll in two-year colleges instead of four-year colleges, and few enrolled in selective or very selective four-year colleges."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Both HSGPA and ACT strongly predict four-year college enrollment and enrollment in colleges with strong graduation rates — related
• CPS graduates' grades predicted college enrollment: graduates needed at least a 2.5 GPA for close to a 50 percent likelihood of enrolling in a four-year college — related
• Among students with the same ACT scores (21-23), college graduation rates are 77 percent for those with a high school GPA of 3.5 or higher versus 40 percent for those with a GPA of 2.0-2.4 — related
• Course grades and GPA predict high school and college outcomes better than standardized test scores or coursework — a broader claim this one bears on
• Among Chicago graduates who enter four-year colleges, high school GPA is the strongest predictor of graduating within six years — related
• High school GPA is the strongest predictor of college admission, persistence, and graduation, more than ACT or SAT scores — related
• Pipeline applied to HSLS:09 recovers that advanced mathematics coursework benefits students least likely to enroll in four-year college the most — related
• CPS graduates with higher ACT scores had higher overall and four-year enrollment rates, and at least an ACT score of 18 gave at least a 50 percent probability of four-year enrollment — related
• High school GPA predicts four-year college graduation more strongly than achievement test scores among Chicago graduates — related
• AP and IB programs in neighborhood high schools serve students with higher-than-average but below selective-enrollment achievement — related