CPS graduates' grades predicted college enrollment: graduates needed at least a 2.5 GPA for close to a 50 percent likelihood of enrolling in a four-year college¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2017 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? High school graduates with very low GPAs were unlikely to enroll in any college, and when they did attend, were more likely to attend a two-year than a four-year college. → Coca 2017 q2 i? CPS graduates needed at least a 2.5 GPA to have had close to a 50 percent likelihood of enrolling in a four-year college. → Coca 2017 (2)

Evidence¶

Coca 2017¶

Coca, V.M., Nagaoka, J., & Seeskin, A. (2017). Patterns of two-year and four-year college enrollment among Chicago Public Schools graduates. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://toandthrough.uchicago.edu/tool

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Descriptive analysis of 2015 CPS graduates' cumulative unweighted GPA against immediate enrollment status, shown in Figure 5. The report calls GPAs a good predictor of college enrollment.

"Figure 5 shows that high school graduates with very low GPAs were unlikely to enroll in any college; when they did attend college, they were more likely to attend a two-year college than a four-year college."

Coca 2017 (2)¶

Coca, V.M., Nagaoka, J., & Seeskin, A. (2017). Patterns of two-year and four-year college enrollment among Chicago Public Schools graduates. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://toandthrough.uchicago.edu/tool

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Same Figure 5 GPA analysis. The report concludes grades are an important lever for increasing college access, particularly for four-year colleges, but notes no national comparison group exists.

"CPS graduates needed at least a 2.5 GPA to have had close to a 50 percent likelihood of enrolling in a four-year college."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• CPS graduates with higher ACT scores had higher overall and four-year enrollment rates, and at least an ACT score of 18 gave at least a 50 percent probability of four-year enrollment — related
• Ninth-grade GPA predicts college enrollment and one-year college persistence in linear, incremental patterns — a broader claim this one bears on
• Students in higher CPS EOT categories had progressively higher rates of high school graduation and college enrollment — related
• High school GPA predicts four-year college graduation more strongly than achievement test scores among Chicago graduates — related
• Students' grades are a more important predictor of college enrollment than ACT scores, which mainly constrain the selectivity of colleges attended — related
• Attending a high school with higher social-emotional value-added increases students' likelihood of graduating and enrolling in a four-year college — related
• Ten percent of CPS graduates who did not enroll in college within six years had an average high school GPA above 3.0, a missed opportunity for high-achieving students — related