Students on track in ninth grade were four times more likely than off-track peers to graduate high school¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r2 · q3
Currency · newest study 2024 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q3 i? Ninth- and tenth-grade students who were on track were 4 times more likely to graduate than off-track students; this predictive gap has held across 2007-08 to 2014-15 cohorts (e.g., 87.2% vs 29.7% in 2014-15). → UChicago Consortium on School Research 2024

Evidence¶

UChicago Consortium on School Research 2024¶

UChicago Consortium on School Research. (2024). Family playbook: How can we understand students' progress in school? Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/events-and-resources

q3 · i? · associational · r2

Consortium analysis (citing Seeskin, Mahaffie, & Usher, 2020) of CPS ninth-grade on-track status and four-year graduation; a companion figure shows on-track graduation rates of 85.5% to 88.0% versus about 29.7% to 35.1% for off-track students across 2007-08 through 2014-15 cohorts.

"Students who were "on track" in ninth & tenth grade were 4 times more likely than students who were "off track" to graduate from high school"

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Freshman OnTrack remains a strong predictor of high school graduation even as on-track rates have risen — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
• Ninth-grade on-track status predicts graduation more strongly than prior achievement, with a 55 percentage point gap after controls — related
• Freshman on-track students are over three times as likely to graduate in four years as off-track students in CPS — related
• Students off track for graduation after ninth grade are less than half as likely to graduate than their on-track peers — related
• 71 percent of CCSD 8th graders were on track for graduation at the end of 9th grade in 2015/16 — related
• Ninth-grade on-track status (at least five credits and no more than one semester F) makes students almost four times more likely to graduate — related
• The freshman on-track indicator predicts five-year graduation equally or more strongly for students with learning disabilities, mild cognitive disabilities or emotional disturbances than for students without disabilities, with on-track students two to six times more likely to graduate — related
• Students off track after ninth grade are less than half as likely to graduate, with Black and Latino students 46% and 31% more likely than the national average to be off track in 2022 — related
• Ninth-grade on-track ELL students in Chicago were up to 3.5 times more likely to graduate than off-track students — a narrower finding that bears on this claim