On-track gains were largest for students with the lowest incoming skills and for African American males¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · causal r1 · q2
Currency · newest study 2014 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Students with incoming EXPLORE scores below 12 gained 24.5 percentage points in on-track rates, the largest gain of any EXPLORE category. → Roderick 2014 q2 i? African American males' on-track rates rose from 43 percent in 2005 to 71 percent in 2013, more than any other racial/ethnic gender subgroup. → Roderick 2014

Evidence¶

Roderick 2014¶

Roderick, M., Kelley-Kemple, T., Johnson, D.W., and Beechum, N.O. (2014). Preventable Failure: Improvements in Long-Term Outcomes when High Schools Focused on the Ninth Grade Year. UChicago CCSR Research Summary. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/preventable-failure-improvements-long-term-outcomes-when-high-schools-focused-ninth

q2 · i? · causal · r1

Subgroup analysis in Table 1 of 2005 versus 2013 on-track rates by EXPLORE category and race/ethnicity-gender. The bottom EXPLORE quartile gained "a 24.5 percentage point increase," and African American males rose from 43 to 71 percent.

"Students with incoming EXPLORE scores less than 12—the bottom quartile of CPS students—had a 24.5 percentage point increase in their on-track rates. On-track rates improved more among African American males than among any other racial/ethnic gender subgroup, rising from 43 percent in 2005 to 71 percent in 2013."

Discussion¶

Learner Variables¶

• Gender — predictor: outcomes differ by group: a gap reflecting circumstances and treatment, not a cause

Related Claims¶

• Ninth graders who fail Algebra I are demographically similar to those who pass, but are more likely to be male and African American — related
• Districtwide ninth-grade on-track rates rose 25 percentage points between 2007 and 2013 across racial, gender, and achievement subgroups — related
• Rising ninth-grade on-track rates did not negatively affect schools' average ACT scores — related
• Freshman OnTrack rates improved most among the highest-risk students, including Black and Latinx young men and the lowest-achieving entrants — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
• CPS Freshman OnTrack rates rose 25 percentage points, from 64 percent in 2003 to 89 percent in 2017 — a broader claim this one bears on
• The share of students in the On-Track category increased by 20 percentage points between 2009 and 2019 while the Intensive Support share decreased from 12 to 8 percent — related
• Long-term English Learners without IEPs had the lowest Freshman OnTrack rate and substantially lower graduation rates than district average — related
• On-Track gains were largest in the lowest-performing schools and among African American and Latino males — related
• At-risk identification is demographically patterned, with Black, Hispanic, and male students more likely to be identified — related
• Freshman OnTrack improvements were largest in the lowest-performing schools, with bottom-quartile schools gaining 33 percentage points — related