Freshman OnTrack rates improved most among the highest-risk students, including Black and Latinx young men and the lowest-achieving entrants¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · causal r1 · q2
Currency · newest study 2021 · checked against its sources 2026-10-20 (automated, 2 of 2 entries) · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Among students with EXPLORE scores below 12, Freshman OnTrack rates increased 25 percentage points, from 41.6 to 66.1 percent, between 2005 and 2013. → Roderick 2021 q2 i? Freshman OnTrack rates among Black young men increased by 28 percentage points, reaching over 71 percent by 2013; rates among Latinx young men rose from 52 to 77 percent. → Roderick 2021 (2)

Evidence¶

Roderick 2021¶

Roderick, M., & Kelley-Kemple, T., with Johnson, D. W., & Ryan, S. (2021). The Preventable Failure: Improvements in High School Graduation Rates when High Schools Focus on the Ninth-Grade Year. University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/the-preventable-failure

q2 · i? · causal · r1

Figure 6 subgroup analysis by entering achievement shows the lowest-achieving students (EXPLORE <12) gained 25 percentage points, "significantly decreasing the gap in rates by prior achievement." Descriptive trend data; no effect size printed.

"Among the lowest-achieving students (EXPLORE scores <12), Freshman OnTrack rates increased by 25 percentage points, from 41.6 percent to 66.1 percent, significantly decreasing the gap in rates by prior achievement."

Roderick 2021 (2)¶

Roderick, M., & Kelley-Kemple, T., with Johnson, D. W., & Ryan, S. (2021). The Preventable Failure: Improvements in High School Graduation Rates when High Schools Focus on the Ninth-Grade Year. University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/the-preventable-failure

q2 · i? · causal · r1

The same subgroup analysis reports that on-track rates "among Black young men increased by 28 percentage points" to over 71 percent, and among Latinx young men climbed from 52 to 77 percent, between 2005 and 2013.

"Between 2005 and 2013, Freshman OnTrack rates among Black young men increased by 28 percentage points so that by 2013, over 71 percent of Black young men in CPS were on-track for graduation."

Discussion¶

Learner Variables¶

• Race and Ethnicity — moderator: an instructional effect differs by group

Related Claims¶

• CPS Freshman OnTrack rates rose 25 percentage points, from 64 percent in 2003 to 89 percent in 2017 — related
• Freshman OnTrack remains a strong predictor of high school graduation even as on-track rates have risen — related
• Middle grades principals have lasting effects on students' high school outcomes and young-adult life outcomes, beyond contemporaneous achievement effects — related
• Freshman OnTrack improvements were largest in the lowest-performing schools, with bottom-quartile schools gaining 33 percentage points — related
• CPS Freshman OnTrack rates rose from 58 to 89 percent between 2007 and 2017 while graduation rates rose 19 percentage points — a broader claim this one bears on
• Gains in sophomore performance were unequal: about one in five Latino and Black young men were off-track at the end of sophomore year — related
• Ninth-grade on-track status predicts graduation more strongly than prior achievement, with a 55 percentage point gap after controls — related
• CPS Freshman OnTrack rates rose 24 percentage points, from 64 percent for the Class of 2006 to 88 percent for the Class of 2019 — a broader claim this one bears on
• Districtwide ninth-grade on-track rates rose 25 percentage points between 2007 and 2013 across racial, gender, and achievement subgroups — related
• Students show signs of dropout risk early in high school, and schools that reach out in the ninth-grade year can keep them on track to graduate — related
• On-track gains were largest for students with the lowest incoming skills and for African American males — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
• Citywide freshman on-track rates improved from 48 to 58 percent over a decade, with declines tied to increased course-taking — related
• Schools vary widely in freshman on-track rates even among students with similar backgrounds — related
• Learning gains were highest for students whose background knowledge was lowest at pre-test — related
• The share of students in the On-Track category increased by 20 percentage points between 2009 and 2019 while the Intensive Support share decreased from 12 to 8 percent — related
• Long-term English Learners without IEPs had the lowest Freshman OnTrack rate and substantially lower graduation rates than district average — related
• On-Track gains were largest in the lowest-performing schools and among African American and Latino males — related
• CPS Freshman OnTrack rates rose 28 percentage points from 61 percent (2007) to 89 percent (2019), then flattened in recent years — related
• In the decade or so to 2017, Chicago Public Schools saw large rises in freshman on-track rates (2006 to 2017), graduation, and college enrollment, with the greatest on-track increases among Black and Latino males — a broader claim this one bears on
• The Freshman OnTrack indicator is more predictive of graduation than eighth-grade test scores, SES, race/ethnicity, gender, and school mobility combined, and raising it raises graduation rates — related