Districtwide ninth-grade on-track rates rose 25 percentage points between 2007 and 2013 across racial, gender, and achievement subgroups¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · causal r1 · q2
Currency · newest study 2014 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2017: local conditions change quickly

Subclaims¶

q2 i? The CPS on-track rate rose from 57 to 82 percent between 2007 and 2013, an estimated 6,900 additional students finishing ninth grade each year without significant course failures. → Roderick 2014

Evidence¶

Roderick 2014¶

Roderick, M., Kelley-Kemple, T., Johnson, D.W., and Beechum, N.O. (2014). Preventable Failure: Improvements in Long-Term Outcomes when High Schools Focused on the Ninth Grade Year. UChicago CCSR Research Summary. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/preventable-failure-improvements-long-term-outcomes-when-high-schools-focused-ninth

q2 · i? · causal · r1

Districtwide trend analysis of first-time freshmen not in special education, charter, or alternative schools, shown in Figure 1. The summary reports the rate "rose 25 percentage points, from 57 to 82 percent," with gains across all racial/ethnic groups, genders, and achievement levels.

"between 2007 and 2013, the CPS on-track rate rose 25 percentage points, from 57 to 82 percent ( see Figure 1 ). This represents an estimated 6,900 additional students who finish ninth grade each year without significant course failures"

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• CPS Freshman OnTrack rates rose from 58 to 89 percent between 2007 and 2017 while graduation rates rose 19 percentage points — related
• Freshman OnTrack rates improved most among the highest-risk students, including Black and Latinx young men and the lowest-achieving entrants — related
• On-track gains were largest for students with the lowest incoming skills and for African American males — related
• Freshman OnTrack improvements were largest in the lowest-performing schools, with bottom-quartile schools gaining 33 percentage points — related
• Graduation rates improved for all racial, ethnic, and economic groups, but racial and ethnic gaps increased while gender, poverty, and disability gaps declined — related
• Ninth-grade GPAs rose steadily in CPS from 2006 to 2013 alongside improvements in test scores, attendance, and behavior — related
• Citywide freshman on-track rates improved from 48 to 58 percent over a decade, with declines tied to increased course-taking — related
• The share of students in the On-Track category increased by 20 percentage points between 2009 and 2019 while the Intensive Support share decreased from 12 to 8 percent — related
• Long-term English Learners without IEPs had the lowest Freshman OnTrack rate and substantially lower graduation rates than district average — related
• On-Track gains were largest in the lowest-performing schools and among African American and Latino males — related