Sample ancestry significantly moderates polygenic score predictions of educational attainment, with stronger predictions in European-ancestry samples¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · quant-synthesis r2 · q4 · i2 medium
Currency · newest study 2024 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · recheck by 2027: tool and model accuracy changes quickly

Subclaims¶

q4 i? In individual meta-regressions, only sample ancestry significantly moderated attainment predictions (β = −0.209, p < 0.001), with European-ancestry samples showing stronger predictions than African American samples. → Wilding 2024 q4 i2 Accounting for sample ancestry increased the pooled attainment association to ρ = 0.287 (95% CI 0.242–0.332). → Wilding 2024 (2)

Evidence¶

Wilding 2024¶

Wilding, K., Wright, M., & von Stumm, S. (2024). Using DNA to Predict Education: a Meta-analytic Review. Educational Psychology Review. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10648-024-09928-4

q4 · i? · quant-synthesis · r2

Meta-regression of the attainment estimates with sample ancestry (binary European versus non-European) as moderator; ancestry was the only individually significant moderator, "with European ancestry samples showing stronger polygenic score predictions compared to African American samples".

"Only sample ancestry emerged as significant moderator of polygenic score predictions of educational attainment (β = − 0.209, p < 0.001, 95% CI from − 0.29 to − 0.13), with European ancestry samples showing stronger polygenic score predictions compared to African American samples."

Wilding 2024 (2)¶

Wilding, K., Wright, M., & von Stumm, S. (2024). Using DNA to Predict Education: a Meta-analytic Review. Educational Psychology Review. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10648-024-09928-4

q4 · i2 · quant-synthesis · r2

Adjusted pooled estimate after modeling sample ancestry in the attainment meta-regression; the association rose to ρ = 0.287, p < 0.001. Ancestry accounted for only 3.34% of total heterogeneity, which remained significant (Q = 851.832, p < 0.001).

"Accounting for sample ancestry increased the association between polygenic score predictions and educational attainment to ρ = 0.287, p < 0.001 (95% CI from 0.242 to 0.332)"

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• The ToM–achievement association is significantly weaker in European samples than in Asian and North American samples — related
• Only 15% of published polygenic score estimates for education come from non-European ancestry samples, all recruited in the US
• Age at assessment and achievement measure moderate polygenic score predictions of educational achievement; the adjusted pooled estimate rises to ρ = 0.50
• Polygenic score predictions are reduced in African American relative to European ancestry samples, significantly so only for educational attainment — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
• Polygenic score predictions of education strengthen as GWAS discovery sample sizes increase — related
• Polygenic scores show a meta-analytic association of ρ = 0.24 with educational achievement — related
• Polygenic scores based on the Lee et al. (2018) GWAS show a meta-analytic association of ρ = 0.27 with educational attainment — related