Four- versus six-year completion gaps of 15–25 percentage points appeared across academic and demographic groups, with Black young men at 13% four-year and 31% six-year completion¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r1 · q3
Currency · newest study 2023 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · recheck by 2028: baselines and conditions change

Subclaims¶

q3 i? Student groups with different GPAs and ACT scores had four- to six-year gaps of 15 to 25 percentage points, and racial/ethnic and gender groups showed generally similar gaps of roughly 20 to 31 points. → Nagaoka 2023

Evidence¶

Nagaoka 2023¶

Nagaoka, J., Mahaffie, S., Usher, A., & Arneson, A. (2023). The four years fallacy: Four-year vs. six-year bachelor's degree completion rates. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/the-four-years-fallacy

q3 · i? · associational · r1

Disaggregated analysis of 2012–14 CPS immediate enrollees by GPA, ACT score, race/ethnicity, and gender (Figure 5; 25,527 students). The report states Black young men's four-year rate was 13% with six-year rates "around 20 percentage points higher" (31% per the Implications section). No effect size is printed.

"The four-year completion rates for Black young men (13%), Black young women (20%), and Latino young men (23%) were lower than the rates for their peers. The six-year completion rates for these groups were around 20 percentage points higher."

Discussion¶

Learner Variables¶

• Gender — predictor: outcomes differ by group: a gap reflecting circumstances and treatment, not a cause

Related Claims¶

• Across nearly all CPS high schools, six-year completion rates exceeded four-year rates, including at selective enrollment high schools where gaps reached 30 percentage points — related
• Bachelor's DAI varies sharply by race/ethnicity and gender: Black and Latino young men are projected at 10 and 13 percent versus a 19 percent district average — related
• Gains in sophomore performance were unequal: about one in five Latino and Black young men were off-track at the end of sophomore year — related
• Young women were more likely than young men to both immediately enroll in and persist through college, in both four-year and two-year colleges — related
• College completion among immediate enrollees in the CPS class of 2015 shows large race/ethnicity and gender gaps, with fewer than a third of Black and Latino young men completing a bachelor's degree — related
• Projected bachelor's degree attainment is far lower for Black and Latino young men (10 and 14 percent) than the CPS district average of 20 percent — related
• College completion among CPS 2017 immediate enrollees shows large disparities by race/ethnicity and gender, with fewer than one-third of Black and Latino young men completing a bachelor's degree — related
• Four-year and six-year completion rates varied widely by college, with gaps between colleges of up to 27 percentage points in four-year rates hidden by similar six-year rates — related