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SEL status-and-growth early-warning modeling

Research Method · All research methods
Evidence · 11 claims (11 for) · 3 studies (2 associational, 1 review), q2–q3 · 0 of 3 report an effect size · 11 claims rest on one study

Description

This framework treats social-emotional learning constructs (academic growth mindset, self-efficacy, self-management) as developmental processes with their own growth trajectories, asking "whether a student's mean SEL score in 6th grade (status) or growth between 6th through 8th grade is more predictive of being off track academically in 9th grade." The article operationalizes it with latent growth curve models, in which "the random intercept reflects the average 6th grade score and the latent growth factor represents the linear change between 6th and 8th grade." Status and growth factors are then used as predictors of 9th-grade off-track indicators.

Accounts

  • SEL status-and-growth framework: middle school SEL constructs as developmental trajectories predicting 9th-grade off-track status: This framework treats social-emotional learning constructs (academic growth mindset, self-efficacy, self-management) as developmental processes with their own growth trajectories, asking "whether a student's mean SEL score in 6th grade (status) or growth between 6th through 8th grade is more predictive of being off track academically in 9th grade." The article operationalizes it with latent growth curve models, in which "the random intercept reflects the average 6th grade score and the latent growth factor represents the linear change between 6th and 8th grade." Status and growth factors are then used as predictors of 9th-grade off-track indicators. (Soland et al. (2019))
  • Incorporate social-emotional development trajectories into identification of students not on track for high school success: The article's stated implication is that early-warning identification of academically off-track students should draw on how students develop socially-emotionally, not only on academic indicators. As the summary puts it, “understanding how a student develops social-emotionally can improve identification of students not on track to succeed in high school.” The principle applies in middle school, where SEL level and growth can be measured before the 9th-grade transition. (James Soland (2019))
  • NWEA working paper on SEL trajectories and 9th-grade off-track identification: A NWEA working paper and companion research brief by James Soland and Megan Kuhfeld examining whether middle school SEL skills predict being off-track to graduate high school. The page lists it under topics including “Social-emotional learning” and “High school,” and summarizes that the study examined SEL stability and the relation of 6th-grade SEL level and growth to successful transition to secondary school. (James Soland (2019))
  • SEL trajectory framework distinguishing status from growth as predictors of 9th-grade off-track outcomes: The article organizes its inquiry around a framework contrasting two ways of summarizing a student's social-emotional learning trajectory: initial level versus change over time. It states the study examines "whether a student’s mean SEL score in 6th grade (status) or growth between 6th and 8th grade is more predictive of being off track academically in 9th grade." Growth models are fit for three SEL constructs shown to relate to successful secondary-school transition. The framework treats SEL development as a longitudinal quantity whose status and growth components carry different predictive information for early high school outcomes. (James Soland (2021))

Claims

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Key Sources

  • Soland, J. & Kuhfeld, M. (2019). Identifying students who are off-track academically in 9th Grade: the role of social-emotional learning trajectories. (NWEA Collaborative for Student Growth Research Brief). https://www.nwea.org
  • James Soland, Megan Kuhfeld. (2019). Identifying students who are off-track academically in ninth grade – the role of social-emotional learning trajectories. NWEA Research. https://www.nwea.org
  • James Soland, Megan Kuhfeld. (2019). Identifying students who are off-track academically in ninth grade – the role of social-emotional learning trajectories. NWEA Research. https://www.nwea.org/research/publication/identifying-students-who-are-off-track-academically-in-ninth-grade-the-role-of-social-emotional-learning-trajectories/
  • James Soland, Megan Kuhfeld. (2021). Identifying students who are off-track academically in 9th grade: The role of social-emotional learning trajectories. British Journal of Educational Psychology. https://doi.org/10.1111/bjep.12463
Page metadata
Field Value
type research-method
id sel-status-and-growth-early-warning-modeling
title SEL status-and-growth early-warning modeling
description This framework treats social-emotional learning constructs (academic growth mindset, self-efficacy, self-management) as developmental processes with their own growth trajectories, asking "whether a student's mean SEL score in 6th grade (status) or growth between 6th through 8th grade is more predict
status review
moved_from element/nwea-sel-trajectories-working-paper, theory/sel-trajectory-status-growth-framework
generated by process:settle-candidates on 2026-10-09
trust unverified — no one has confirmed this page's content
sources 2 — james-soland-2019, james-soland-2021

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