A three-mode model of preservice teachers' probabilistic reasoning: mathematical, subjective, and outcome-oriented¶

Theory · All theories
Evidence · 5 claims (5 for) · 1 study (1 qualitative), q2 · 0 of 1 report an effect size · 5 claims rest on one study

Description¶

The study models PSMTs' probabilistic reasoning in a unified schema with three categories: mathematically oriented thinkers relying on theoretical probability, subjectively oriented thinkers using personal information and contingencies, and outcome-oriented thinkers focused on the favourable outcome itself. The article states that 'PSMTs’ probabilistic reasoning was classified into mathematical (M), subjective (S), and outcome-oriented (O)', responding to calls for a unified framework that models several probability conceptions in one schema rather than a normative hierarchy.

Design Implications¶

Context¶

Requirements¶

• Participants with prior knowledge of the three principal interpretations of probability (theoretical, experimental, conditional)

Constraints¶

• Developed from a purposive sample of 68 PSMTs at one Egyptian faculty of education; qualitative case study, not generalisable across contexts

Target Learners¶

• preservice mathematics teachers

Target Learning Objectives¶

• probabilistic reasoning under uncertainty
• probability conceptions

Claims¶

• Attributing outcomes to Allah's will among some PSMTs functioned as probabilistic reasoning, not mere personalist belief [+W]
• Mathematically oriented PSMTs exhibit equiprobability and insensitivity-to-prior-probability biases [+W]
• A bias-free experimental-probability subcategory (o**) emerged only in the die-rolling task [+W]
• Some outcome-oriented PSMTs (types o and o) predict single-trial outcomes, and type o thinkers conflate causality with conditionality [+W]
• Subjectively oriented reasoning emerged in the giving-birth context but disappeared in the die-rolling task [+W]

Related Theories¶

Examples¶

• Use realistic, culturally meaningful contexts alongside randomising devices to elicit the full range of probabilistic reasoning

Key Sources¶

• Elbehary, S.G.A. (2021). Reasoning under uncertainty within the context of probability education: A case study of preservice mathematics teachers. Pythagoras, 42(1), a630. https://doi.org/10.4102/pythagoras.v42i1.630