Course performance indicators predict ELL graduation better than ELL-specific indicators such as proficiency level or education interruptions¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r? · q2
Currency · newest study 2012 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2015: tool and model accuracy changes quickly

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Course performance indicators (absences, GPA, course failures) are more predictive of graduation for ELLs than English proficiency level or interrupted education. → Ninth Grade Course Performance Found to Be the Strongest Predictor of High School Graduation for Chicago English Language Learners 2012

Evidence¶

Ninth Grade Course Performance Found to Be the Strongest Predictor of High School Graduation for Chicago English Language Learners 2012¶

Ninth Grade Course Performance Found to Be the Strongest Predictor of High School Graduation for Chicago English Language Learners. (2012). University of Chicago Consortium on Chicago School Research / National High School Center. http://www.betterhighschools.org

q2 · i? · associational · r?

The report's comparative finding from analyses of the 2004-05 CPS ninth-grade cohort: "course performance indicators are actually more predictive of graduation than other ELL-specific indicators"; no effect sizes are printed in the release.

"course performance indicators are actually more predictive of graduation than other ELL-specific indicators, including English language proficiency level and whether students experienced interruptions in their education"

Discussion¶

Learner Variables¶

• Time and Continuity — predictor: learners who differ on it differ in outcomes

Related Claims¶

• Within every student category, freshman GPA, course failures, and absences are strongly related to five-year graduation rates, with large drops per half grade point, per additional course failure, and per absence band — a broader claim this one bears on
• Ninth-grade on-track ELL students in Chicago were up to 3.5 times more likely to graduate than off-track students — a broader claim this one bears on
• Hispanic ELLs proficient before sixth grade performed better in ninth-grade courses than other Hispanic subgroups — related
• Long-term Hispanic ELLs had the worst course performance and graduation rates, with only 52 percent graduating within four years — related
• Hispanic ELLs new to CPS in middle or high school performed as well or better than any group in ninth grade but graduated at lower rates than all groups except long-term ELLs — related
• Graduation rates differed by timing of English proficiency: 60 percent for middle-grades proficiency versus 68 percent for pre-sixth-grade proficiency — related
• Hispanic students graduated at far lower rates than white and Asian ELL students despite similar course performance patterns — related
• High-level outcome measures like graduation rates offer little actionable guidance for educators within a school year — related
• Almost all middle and high school academic indicators demonstrated similar predictive strength across student groups, with exceptions for science and English language arts proficiency in middle school and science proficiency and community service learning enrollment in high school — related
• Combining GPA with attendance, or course failure rates with attendance, gives the best prediction of high school graduation for most English Learner groups but not long-term English Learners with IEPs — related
• Ninth grade GPAs are the single most predictive indicator of high school graduation, college enrollment, and degree completion for all English Learner groups — related
• Long-term English Learners with IEPs were on-track in ninth grade at near district-average rates but graduated at substantially lower rates, similar to non-English Learners with IEPs — related
• ELL newcomers entering CPS after age 12 graduated at lower rates than students with the same grades and attendance, with school quality the key associated factor — related
• In a Chicago middle-grades study, the combination of grades and attendance provided the best prediction of high school on-track rates, and adding test scores and grit measures did not further improve prediction — related
• Combining GPA or course failure rates with attendance provides the best prediction of high school graduation for most EL groups, while GPA plus test scores best predicts college degree attainment — related