In a Chicago middle-grades study, the combination of grades and attendance provided the best prediction of high school on-track rates, and adding test scores and grit measures did not further improve prediction¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · review r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2018 · checked against its sources 2026-10-13 (automated, 1 of 1 entry) · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2021: tool and model accuracy changes quickly

Subclaims¶

q2 i? The combination of grades and attendance indicators provided the best prediction of high school on-track rates, and additional information including test scores and measures of student grit did not further improve the prediction. → Allensworth 2018

Evidence¶

Allensworth 2018¶

Allensworth, E.M., Nagaoka, J., & Johnson, D.W. (2018). High school graduation and college readiness indicator systems: What we know, what we need to know. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://ncs.uchicago.edu/freshman-on-track-toolkit

q2 · i? · review · r2

The review reports, citing Allensworth et al. (2014), a Chicago study of middle grade predictors in which "the combination of indicators of grades and attendance provided the best prediction of high school on-track rates." Test scores and grit measures did not further improve prediction. No effect sizes or accuracy percentages are printed for this finding.

"In a study of middle grade predictors of high school success in Chicago, the combination of indicators of grades and attendance provided the best prediction of high school on-track rates, and additional information—including test scores and measures of student "grit"—did not further improve the prediction and thus are not necessary components of an indicator system."

Discussion¶

Learner Variables¶

• Personality Traits — predictor: learners who differ on it differ in outcomes

Related Claims¶

• Combining GPA or course failure rates with attendance provides the best prediction of high school graduation for most EL groups, while GPA plus test scores best predicts college degree attainment — related
• Ninth-grade on-track status predicts graduation more strongly than prior achievement, with a 55 percentage point gap after controls — related
• Freshman attendance below 85 percent predicts non-graduation even among students with similar grades — related
• The CRIS framework extends existing early warning systems beyond graduation and academic measures — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Facial features of negative emotions predict low rapport, but additional modalities added no predictive power — related
• Course performance indicators predict ELL graduation better than ELL-specific indicators such as proficiency level or education interruptions — related
• Ninth grade GPAs are the single most predictive indicator of high school graduation, college enrollment, and degree completion for all English Learner groups — related
• Within every student category, freshman GPA, course failures, and absences are strongly related to five-year graduation rates, with large drops per half grade point, per additional course failure, and per absence band — related
• The Freshman OnTrack indicator is more predictive of graduation than eighth-grade test scores, SES, race/ethnicity, gender, and school mobility combined, and raising it raises graduation rates — related