If current rates hold, 27 percent of current CPS ninth-graders will complete any college credential within 10 years (2019 PAI)¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r1 · q2
Currency · newest study 2020 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2023: local conditions change quickly

Subclaims¶

q2 i? The 2019 Post-Secondary Attainment Index projects that 27 percent of current CPS ninth-graders will complete any college credential (bachelor's degree, associate degree, or certificate) within 10 years if current rates do not change. → Nagaoka 2020

Evidence¶

Nagaoka 2020¶

Nagaoka, J., Mahaffie, S., Usher, A., & Seeskin, A. (2020). The Educational Attainment of Chicago Public Schools Students: 2019. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://toandthrough.uchicago.edu/tool/cps/2019/#/milestones

q2 · i? · associational · r1

Figure 5 takeaway from this descriptive report on 2019 CPS attainment. The PAI is a hypothetical projection multiplying high school graduation, immediate enrollment, and six-year completion rates, not a measure of actual attainment for any one cohort. The report notes "Nationally, 50 percent of adults between 25 and 34 years old hold any college degree."

"This means that if the current high school graduation, college enrollment, and program completion rates do not change over the next 10 years, 27 percent of current CPS ninth-graders will complete any college credential, including a bachelor's degree, associate degree, or certificate, within 10 years."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• If current rates hold, only 20 percent of current CPS ninth-graders will complete a bachelor's degree within 10 years (2019 BDAI), with 18 percent via a direct pathway — related
• The 2020 Post-Secondary Attainment Index is 27 percent, and no race/ethnicity and gender group reaches the 75 percent aspiration benchmark — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
• The 2021 Post-secondary Attainment Index for CPS ninth-graders is 27.0%, essentially unchanged from 2020 — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
• Attainment indices vary sharply by race/ethnicity and gender: Black young men face a projected PAI of 12.6 percent versus 62.0 percent for Asian/Pacific Islander young women — related
• The 2021 PAI ranges widely by race/ethnicity and gender, from 11.6% for Black young men to 67.3% for Asian/Pacific Islander young women, and no group reaches the 75% aspiration level — related
• College aspirations doubled between 1980 and 2002 while readiness and completion gaps by race, ethnicity, and income persisted or widened — related
• The 2023 Post-secondary Attainment Index for CPS ninth-graders is 31%, up 0.4 percentage points from 2022 — related