Attainment indices vary sharply by race/ethnicity and gender: Black young men face a projected PAI of 12.6 percent versus 62.0 percent for Asian/Pacific Islander young women¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2020 · checked against its sources 2026-10-16 (automated, 1 of 1 entry) · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2025: baselines and conditions change

Subclaims¶

q2 i? The 2019 PAI ranges from 12.6 percent for Black young men to 62.0 percent for Asian/Pacific Islander young women, with Black young men's DBDAI at 8.6 percent and BDAI at 9.4 percent. → Nagaoka 2020 q2 i? Black young women graduated from CPS and enrolled immediately in four-year colleges at rates slightly higher than the district average but completed credentials at lower rates, resulting in a PAI below the district average. → Nagaoka 2020

Evidence¶

Nagaoka 2020¶

Nagaoka, J., Mahaffie, S., Usher, A., & Seeskin, A. (2020). The Educational Attainment of Chicago Public Schools Students: 2019. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://toandthrough.uchicago.edu/tool/cps/2019/#/milestones

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Table 1 takeaway from this descriptive report, disaggregating the DBDAI, BDAI, and PAI by race/ethnicity and gender. Table 1 prints component rates: Black young men's high school graduation rate is 73.3 percent, immediate four-year enrollment 38.6 percent, and bachelor's completion among immediate four-year enrollees 30.3 percent.

"If current rates hold, 87 percent of Black young men in the current CPS ninth-grade class will not complete any post-secondary degree or certificate within 10 years. Fewer than one in ten (9 percent) will earn a bachelor's degree within 10 years."

Discussion¶

Learner Variables¶

• Gender — predictor: outcomes differ by group: a gap reflecting circumstances and treatment, not a cause
• Race and Ethnicity — predictor: outcomes differ by group: a gap reflecting circumstances and treatment, not a cause

Related Claims¶

• College completion rates among immediate enrollees varied widely by community area, ranging from 24 to 74 percent for the class of 2013 — related
• The 2021 PAI ranges widely by race/ethnicity and gender, from 11.6% for Black young men to 67.3% for Asian/Pacific Islander young women, and no group reaches the 75% aspiration level — related
• The 2020 Post-Secondary Attainment Index is 27 percent, and no race/ethnicity and gender group reaches the 75 percent aspiration benchmark — related
• Bachelor's DAI varies sharply by race/ethnicity and gender: Black and Latino young men are projected at 10 and 13 percent versus a 19 percent district average — related
• CPS high school graduation rates show large gaps by race/ethnicity and gender, with young men graduating at lower rates than young women within every race/ethnicity group — related
• College completion among immediate enrollees in the CPS class of 2015 shows large race/ethnicity and gender gaps, with fewer than a third of Black and Latino young men completing a bachelor's degree — related
• If current rates hold, only 20 percent of current CPS ninth-graders will complete a bachelor's degree within 10 years (2019 BDAI), with 18 percent via a direct pathway — related
• If current rates hold, 27 percent of current CPS ninth-graders will complete any college credential within 10 years (2019 PAI) — related
• College aspirations doubled between 1980 and 2002 while readiness and completion gaps by race, ethnicity, and income persisted or widened — related
• The 2023 Post-secondary Attainment Index for CPS ninth-graders is 31%, up 0.4 percentage points from 2022 — related
• College enrollment gaps by race, gender, and socioeconomic background among CPS graduates were driven primarily by differences in four-year enrollment — related
• White students outcomplete Black students by at least 11 percentage points in every family income group at four-year institutions — related
• College completion among CPS 2017 immediate enrollees shows large disparities by race/ethnicity and gender, with fewer than one-third of Black and Latino young men completing a bachelor's degree — related
• The 2021 Post-secondary Attainment Index for CPS ninth-graders is 27.0%, essentially unchanged from 2020 — related
• Projected bachelor's degree attainment is far lower for Black and Latino young men (10 and 14 percent) than the CPS district average of 20 percent — related
• Young women were more likely than young men to both immediately enroll in and persist through college, in both four-year and two-year colleges — related