College aspirations doubled between 1980 and 2002 while readiness and completion gaps by race, ethnicity, and income persisted or widened¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · review r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2009 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2014: baselines and conditions change

Subclaims¶

q2 i? The share of tenth graders hoping to earn a bachelor's degree or higher doubled, from 40 percent in 1980 to 80 percent in 2002, with the greatest increases among low-income students. → Melissa Roderick 2009 q2 i? Despite converging aspirations, stable and in some cases widening racial gaps in college enrollment and completion remain. → Melissa Roderick 2009 (2)

Evidence¶

Melissa Roderick 2009¶

Melissa Roderick, Jenny Nagaoka, and Vanessa Coca. (2009). College Readiness for All: The Challenge for Urban High Schools. The Future of Children. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/college-readiness-all-challenge-urban-high-schools doi:10.1353/foc.0.0024

q2 · i? · review · r2

This review reports national trend data showing tenth graders' four-year-degree aspirations "doubled, from 40 percent in 1980 to 80 percent in 2002," shared across racial and ethnic groups with low-income students showing the greatest increases. Descriptive trend figures only; no effect size.

"Nationally, the share of tenth graders who stated that they hoped to earn a bachelor's degree or higher doubled, from 40 percent in 1980 to 80 percent in 2002."

Melissa Roderick 2009 (2)¶

Melissa Roderick, Jenny Nagaoka, and Vanessa Coca. (2009). College Readiness for All: The Challenge for Urban High Schools. The Future of Children. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/college-readiness-all-challenge-urban-high-schools

q2 · i? · review · r2

The review's synthesis of national attainment trends (table 1, ages 25-29) finds aspiration gaps fell while enrollment and completion gaps stayed stable or widened; for example, only 17.8 percent of African American and 10.5 percent of Latino young adults held bachelor's degrees in 2005. Descriptive statistics only.

"As shown in the bottom section of table 1, we have observed stable and in some cases widening racial gaps in college enrollment and completion despite dramatic reductions in the gaps in educational aspirations by race and ethnicity and income."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Bachelor's DAI varies sharply by race/ethnicity and gender: Black and Latino young men are projected at 10 and 13 percent versus a 19 percent district average — related
• If current rates hold, only 20 percent of current CPS ninth-graders will complete a bachelor's degree within 10 years (2019 BDAI), with 18 percent via a direct pathway — related
• Attainment indices vary sharply by race/ethnicity and gender: Black young men face a projected PAI of 12.6 percent versus 62.0 percent for Asian/Pacific Islander young women — related
• The percent of CPS ninth-graders projected to earn a bachelor's degree within six years of high school graduation nearly doubled from 11 percent in 2006 to 20 percent in 2018 — related
• The 2020 Post-Secondary Attainment Index is 27 percent, and no race/ethnicity and gender group reaches the 75 percent aspiration benchmark — related
• Projected bachelor's degree attainment is far lower for Black and Latino young men (10 and 14 percent) than the CPS district average of 20 percent — related
• If current rates hold, 27 percent of current CPS ninth-graders will complete any college credential within 10 years (2019 PAI) — related
• The 2017 CPS Bachelor's Degree Attainment Index is estimated at 19 percent, up from 11 percent in 2006, with the Direct Bachelor's DAI at 17 percent — related
• Low-income urban students complete college-application steps at far lower rates than suburban peers with similar aspirations — related
• High school curricular rigor is the number one indicator of college completion, more influential than race, family income, or parent education — related
• The 2021 PAI ranges widely by race/ethnicity and gender, from 11.6% for Black young men to 67.3% for Asian/Pacific Islander young women, and no group reaches the 75% aspiration level — related