The 2020 Post-Secondary Attainment Index is 27 percent, and no race/ethnicity and gender group reaches the 75 percent aspiration benchmark¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2021 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person · recheck by 2026: baselines and conditions change

Subclaims¶

q2 i? If current rates hold, 27 percent of current CPS ninth-graders would complete a college credential within 10 years, though nearly 75 percent of ninth-graders aspire to at least an associate degree. → Malone 2021 q2 i? No race/ethnicity and gender group reaches a PAI of 75 percent; young men of every group have a lower PAI than young women of the same group, with Black young men lowest at 13.0 percent and Asian/Pacific Islander young women highest at 65.8 percent. → Malone 2021 (2)

Evidence¶

Malone 2021¶

Malone, M., Mahaffie, S., Hernandez, G., Usher, A., & Nagaoka, J. (2021). The educational attainment of Chicago Public Schools students: 2020. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. http://toandthrough.uchicago.edu/tool/cps/hs

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Descriptive projection (Figure 7) combining the 2020 graduation rate (83.2 percent), 2020 immediate enrollment rates, and 2013 completion rates; of 100 ninth-graders, 83 would graduate, and 27 of the original graduates would complete any credential within six years post-graduation.

"If current rates of high school graduation, college enrollment, and college completion were not to change over the next 10 years, 20 percent of current CPS ninth-graders would complete a bachelor's degree and another 7 percent would complete an associate degree or certificate within 10 years"

Malone 2021 (2)¶

Malone, M., Mahaffie, S., Hernandez, G., Usher, A., & Nagaoka, J. (2021). The educational attainment of Chicago Public Schools students: 2020. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. http://toandthrough.uchicago.edu/tool/cps/hs

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Disaggregated PAI calculation by race/ethnicity and gender (Table 1, Figure 9) using the same cohort structure as the district PAI; PAIs range from 13.0 percent (Black young men) to 65.8 percent (Asian/Pacific Islander young women), and "Young men of all race/ethnicity groups" graduated, enrolled, and completed "at a rate lower than young women of the same race/ethnicity."

"If the mos t recent available rates of attainment for CPS students were not to change over the next decade, no race/ethnicity and gender group would have 75 percent of students attain a college degree or certificate in 10 years."

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• Attainment indices vary sharply by race/ethnicity and gender: Black young men face a projected PAI of 12.6 percent versus 62.0 percent for Asian/Pacific Islander young women — related
• If current rates hold, only 20 percent of current CPS ninth-graders will complete a bachelor's degree within 10 years (2019 BDAI), with 18 percent via a direct pathway — related
• If current rates hold, 27 percent of current CPS ninth-graders will complete any college credential within 10 years (2019 PAI) — possibly the same claim (merge candidate)
• The 2021 Post-secondary Attainment Index for CPS ninth-graders is 27.0%, essentially unchanged from 2020 — related
• The 2021 PAI ranges widely by race/ethnicity and gender, from 11.6% for Black young men to 67.3% for Asian/Pacific Islander young women, and no group reaches the 75% aspiration level — related
• Bachelor's DAI varies sharply by race/ethnicity and gender: Black and Latino young men are projected at 10 and 13 percent versus a 19 percent district average — related
• An estimated 31 million or more US students over the last 20 years enrolled in but did not complete post-secondary education — related
• College aspirations doubled between 1980 and 2002 while readiness and completion gaps by race, ethnicity, and income persisted or widened — related
• The 2023 Post-secondary Attainment Index for CPS ninth-graders is 31%, up 0.4 percentage points from 2022 — related
• Only 41 percent of CPS seniors who aspired to a four-year degree enrolled in a four-year college the fall after graduation — related
• Pre-med aspiration, excitement about learning, and competitiveness each predict higher engagement; gender, race, and most pre-college measures do not — related