The 2021 PAI ranges widely by race/ethnicity and gender, from 11.6% for Black young men to 67.3% for Asian/Pacific Islander young women, and no group reaches the 75% aspiration level¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · associational r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2022 · checked against its sources 2026-10-20 (automated, 1 of 1 entry) · not reviewed by a person · recheck by 2027: baselines and conditions change

Subclaims¶

q2 i? No race/ethnicity and gender group would have 75% of students attain a college credential in 10 years at current rates, though nearly 75% of ninth-graders aspire to at least an associate degree. → Mahaffie 2022

Evidence¶

Mahaffie 2022¶

Mahaffie, S., Malone, M., Usher, A., Mukherjee, D., & Nagaoka, J. (2022). The educational attainment of Chicago Public Schools students: 2021. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. https://toandthrough.uchicago.edu/tool/cps/

q2 · i? · associational · r2

Disaggregated PAI analysis (Figure 2, Table A.2): Asian/Pacific Islander young women 67.3%, White young women 60.5%, Black young women 23.0%, Black young men 11.6%, Latino young men 20.5%. The aspiration benchmark comes from a 2019 5Essentials Survey analysis in which 74.1% of ninth-graders aspired to at least an associate degree or certificate.

"However, no race/ethnicity and gender group would have 75 percent of students attain a college degree or certificate in 10 years, if the most recent available rates of attainment for CPS students were not to change over the next decade."

Discussion¶

Learner Variables¶

• Race and Ethnicity — predictor: outcomes differ by group: a gap reflecting circumstances and treatment, not a cause

Related Claims¶

• Attainment indices vary sharply by race/ethnicity and gender: Black young men face a projected PAI of 12.6 percent versus 62.0 percent for Asian/Pacific Islander young women — related
• If current rates hold, 27 percent of current CPS ninth-graders will complete any college credential within 10 years (2019 PAI) — related
• The 2021 Post-secondary Attainment Index for CPS ninth-graders is 27.0%, essentially unchanged from 2020 — related
• The 2020 Post-Secondary Attainment Index is 27 percent, and no race/ethnicity and gender group reaches the 75 percent aspiration benchmark — related
• Bachelor's DAI varies sharply by race/ethnicity and gender: Black and Latino young men are projected at 10 and 13 percent versus a 19 percent district average — related
• The 2023 Post-secondary Attainment Index for CPS ninth-graders is 31%, up 0.4 percentage points from 2022 — related
• College aspirations doubled between 1980 and 2002 while readiness and completion gaps by race, ethnicity, and income persisted or widened — related
• Pre-med aspiration, excitement about learning, and competitiveness each predict higher engagement; gender, race, and most pre-college measures do not — related