A polygenic score for educational attainment explains about 15% of individual differences in out-of-sample prediction among people of European descent, with a correlation of approximately 0.4 with outcomes¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study · theoretical r2 · q2
Currency · newest study 2022 · not yet checked against its sources · not reviewed by a person

Subclaims¶

q2 i? A polygenic score derived from a GWAS of more than 3 million individuals explains about 15% of individual differences in educational attainment in out-of-sample prediction, among people of European descent, with a correlation between outcome and the PGS of approximately 0.4. → Peter M. Visscher 2022

Evidence¶

Peter M. Visscher 2022¶

Peter M. Visscher. (2022). Genetics of cognitive performance, education and learning: from research to policy? npj Science of Learning. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41539-022-00124-z

q2 · i? · theoretical · r2

The commentary reports the latest GWAS of educational attainment, from a sample of more than 3 million individuals, reporting about 3000 DNA variants reaching stringent statistical significance. It states the PGS "explains about 15% of individual differences in out-of-sample prediction"; it separately states the correlation between outcome and the PGS is approximately 0.4, among people of European descent only. No standardised effect size for this finding is printed in the quoted passage.

"a “polygenic score” (PGS) derived from the estimated effects of the DNA variants in the study explains about 15% of individual differences in out-of-sample prediction, among people who are genetically of European descent"

Discussion¶

Related Claims¶

• College completion prevalence differs hugely between the top and bottom deciles of the polygenic score distribution (60% versus 10%) — related
• Polygenic score predictions of education strengthen as GWAS discovery sample sizes increase — a broader claim this one bears on
• Sample ancestry significantly moderates polygenic score predictions of educational attainment, with stronger predictions in European-ancestry samples — related
• Polygenic score predictions are reduced in African American relative to European ancestry samples, significantly so only for educational attainment — related
• Only 15% of published polygenic score estimates for education come from non-European ancestry samples, all recruited in the US — related
• Polygenic scores based on the Lee et al. (2018) GWAS show a meta-analytic association of ρ = 0.27 with educational attainment — related
• Polygenic scores show a meta-analytic association of ρ = 0.24 with educational achievement — related
• Age at assessment and achievement measure moderate polygenic score predictions of educational achievement; the adjusted pooled estimate rises to ρ = 0.50 — related
• Adding a polygenic score as a control variable in a randomized controlled trial can be worth a 13% reduction in sample size — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Polygenic score predictive power for educational attainment increases with discovery sample size and is projected to approach the SNP heritability bound — a broader claim this one bears on