In the decade or so to 2017, Chicago Public Schools saw large rises in freshman on-track rates (2006 to 2017), graduation, and college enrollment, with the greatest on-track increases among Black and Latino males¶

Claim · All claims
Evidence · 1 study (2 entries) · design r1 · q2
Currency · newest study 2018 · checked against its sources 2026-10-20 (automated, 2 of 2 entries) · not reviewed by a person · overdue for a recheck since 2021: local conditions change quickly

Subclaims¶

q2 i? Between 2006 and 2017, the proportion of CPS freshmen on-track to graduate rose 28 percentage points, with the greatest increases among Black and Latino males. → Moeller 2018 q2 i? In what the report calls "the past decade or so" (it gives exact years only for the on-track figure), high school graduation rates rose 18 percentage points and the four-year college enrollment rate rose 14 percentage points, while the proportion of freshmen projected to earn a bachelor's degree doubled. → Moeller 2018 (2)

Evidence¶

Moeller 2018¶

Moeller, E., Seeskin, A., & Nagaoka, J. (2018). Practice-Driven Data: Lessons from Chicago's Approach to Research, Data, and Practice in Education. Chicago, IL: UChicago Consortium on School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/practice-driven-data-lessons-chicagos-approach-research-data-and-practice-education

q2 · i? · design · r1

Descriptive district-wide indicator reporting in the paper's introduction, covering the third-largest US school district. It states CPS saw a 28 percentage-point rise in freshman on-track rates between 2006 and 2017, "with the greatest increases occurring among Black and Latino males". No test statistics or effect sizes are printed.

"Overall, between 2006 and 2017, the district has seen a 28 percentage-point rise in the proportion of freshman on-track to graduate, with the greatest increases occurring among Black and Latino males."

Moeller 2018 (2)¶

Moeller, E., Seeskin, A., & Nagaoka, J. (2018). Practice-Driven Data: Lessons from Chicago's Approach to Research, Data, and Practice in Education. Chicago, IL: UChicago Consortium on School Research. https://consortium.uchicago.edu/publications/practice-driven-data-lessons-chicagos-approach-research-data-and-practice-education

q2 · i? · design · r1

The introduction's descriptive trend summary for CPS over "the past decade or so" (exact years are given only for the on-track rise): graduation rates up 18 percentage points, four-year college enrollment up 14 percentage points, and the proportion of freshmen projected to earn a bachelor's degree doubled, described as occurring "even with thousands of more high school graduates". Figures are descriptive; no inferential statistics are printed.

"High school graduation rates have increased by 18 percentage points, with ACT scores improving at the same time. Most impressively, even with thousands of more high school graduates, the four-year college enrollment rate rose by 14 percentage points, and the overall proportion of high school freshmen who are projected to earn a bachelor's degree has doubled in the last decade."

Discussion¶

Learner Variables¶

• Race and Ethnicity — predictor: outcomes differ by group: a gap reflecting circumstances and treatment, not a cause

Related Claims¶

• Chicago's on-track data system was associated with improved high school graduation rates — related
• Black and Latino students' success in progressive mathematics triggers system reactions questioning the program's rigor — related
• Chicago Public Schools improved dramatically between 1987 and 2017, with the biggest gains among students of color and low-income students — a broader claim this one bears on
• Graduation and enrollment trends vary by school type: non-charter non-selective schools caught up to charters on graduation, but charters and selective enrollment lead on college enrollment — related
• CPS Freshman OnTrack rates rose 24 percentage points, from 64 percent for the Class of 2006 to 88 percent for the Class of 2019 — related
• On-Track gains were largest in the lowest-performing schools and among African American and Latino males — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Freshman OnTrack rates improved most among the highest-risk students, including Black and Latinx young men and the lowest-achieving entrants — a narrower finding that bears on this claim
• Gains in sophomore performance were unequal: about one in five Latino and Black young men were off-track at the end of sophomore year — related
• The 2017 CPS Bachelor's Degree Attainment Index is estimated at 19 percent, up from 11 percent in 2006, with the Direct Bachelor's DAI at 17 percent — related
• Freshman OnTrack improvements were largest in the lowest-performing schools, with bottom-quartile schools gaining 33 percentage points — related
• Chicago's district-wide Freshman On-Track rate improved from 61 percent in 2006 to 85 percent in 2015 — related